THE “COLLAPSE” IS COMING …
If you don’t already follow it, Michael Snyder’s website – The Economic Collapse – is must-read material. Some might dismiss the conclusions he reaches as overly alarmist, but Snyder’s pieces are always chock full of solid data to justify his points.
This week Snyder explores the implosion of America’s retail sales industry – one of the primary engines of job creation and economic growth in this country. Specifically, Snyder debunks the notion that the rash of closed physical storefronts across the country is a simple recalibration toward web-based sales.
“Internet shopping alone does not account for the great retail apocalypse that we are witnessing,” he writes. “In fact, some retail experts estimate that the Internet has accounted for only about 20 percent of the decline that we are seeing. Most of the rest of it can be accounted for by the slow, steady death of the middle class U.S. consumer. Median household income has declined for five years in a row, but all of our bills just keep going up. That means that the amount of disposable income that average Americans have continues to shrink, and that is really bad news for retailers.”
Indeed … and according to Snyder “this is just the beginning.”
“Retail experts are projecting that the pace of store closings will actually accelerate over the course of the next decade,” he notes.
And therein lies the fundamental problem with command economic ideology and the perpetual, mindless expansion of government: The center cannot hold. Eventually, the people relied upon to grow the economy with their purchases simply stop making purchases – which hastens the decline.
For the economy to grow, there must be job growth and income growth to support its expansion … and that’s never going to happen as long as an unjustifiably large central government is bleeding consumers dry.
Consider America’s shriveling retail industry as Exhibit A …
100 comments
The key economic indicator is McDonalds trash littering Walmart parking lots. The “middle class” has a habit of buying fast food, quaffing it down in their parked cars, throwing the trash on the ground or into the overfilled garbage cans, then go shopping. When these “ethnic” shoppers stop doing this, when they do not have the money to go to McDonalds then shop at Walmart, THEN retail is screwed. Survey a Walmart parking at the end of the month and in the middle of the month when the government assistance checks are deposited. So far this year, the “middle class” has hurt McDonalds and Walmart sales…still too early to say. Waiting for the Q3 trash reports my self.
Why is it then, that when I go to Sam’s there are long lines at all the checkout counters? I do hate waiting in line to give someone my money.
Maybe because all the smaller stores that people might normally go to are closed so Sam’s market share is going up? I’ve seen such a thing with all the Kmart closings recently.
Not to mention Piggly Wiggly’s recent selling/closing of a bunch of stores.
Sears too! I saw a huge jump in Walmart/Sams traffic on Harbison after Sears closed.
The Kmarts in the upstate have been disappearing too.
Kmart and Sears are the same company.
I guess that explains it.
People buying necessary food to stay alive at Sam’s doesn’t prove retail is ok. It proves that people need food to stay alive.
Lots of huge TVs going thru the checkout lines at Sam’s.
If the entire middle class worked at Walmart, part-time, and they were able to buy tvs for their trailers, would that make you happier?
and why am I unhappy? It is Sic Willie’s thesis that retail is going to hell in a hand basket, not mine.
my bad. friendly fire.
Our president (through his mouthpiece) recently attributed that trend to being “free” from an oppressive job, and these folks can now go on to do something they *really* want to do, because they don’t have a job to go to.
The free market would be kinder.
I agree with that.
Will you agree that The Great Recession should have taught us to buy less shit?
The free market is a poor teacher.
CNSYD: “The store I shop at has long lines; hence the economy must be booming.”
Bread lines in Russia were pretty long too.
Sic Willie alleges that retail is fading fast because the middle class has no money. My point was that if that is true why are there long checkout lines. It is not for the same reasons as in Russia in that there is a lack of supply.
In the worst of times and in the worst of locations there
will be pockets of prosperity. Granted in the worst places and worst times prosperity will be relative but with that context it is possible to see TVs flying off the shelves in some locations but if the majority of locations have reduced sales there will be declining revenues. Also, businesses don’t shut down only because of zero profits (or losses) but some will close because there aren’t enough profits. If they can get a bigger return on their money investing it somewhere else they will close that business, even if it is profitable, and invest their money elsewhere. Different manufacturers will discontinue a product line because they aren’t making enough money, even if it is making meager profits. It’s human nature.
We need more money printing to stimulate things & more welfare to help the economy.
“Consider America’s shriveling retail industry as Exhibit A”
Actually this should be considered exhibit B or later, exhibit A would be the dismal
performance on creating jobs or the declining labor participation rate or the total number of people working today vs. five years ago. The declining retail figures are just a symptom of the illness infecting this country.
People can continue to claim Republicans want dirty air, water, kill their neighbors
or whatever idiotic notion floats their boat but until we scale back the overzealous government regulations that only pit business against business and are used as tools by crony capitalists to get a leg up we will continue our decline and malaise.
We have to break the strangle hold the government has on business and let business perform and the economy will come back greater than ever. Or we can keep up as we are until finally everyone will get the idea and make government back off, its really just a matter of how much suffering Americans are willing to put up with, obviously we aren’t there yet.
What amazes me about Republicans is their ability to stick by their failed ideology in the face of all the evidence to the contrary. Since the 1980s this country has been operating on a right wing trickle down economics theory. Republicans have relentlessly attacked as waste anything government does to benefit the middle class in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.
In addition, Republicans have systematically attacked regulation after regulation designed to protect the average person from the excesses of business. You know, like those pesky regulations put in after the depression and designed to prevent banks from becoming too big to fail. We had to get rid of those.
In post depression America the inflation adjusted income of the average American sored. That all came to a halt in the 1980s. Since then income of the average American on an inflation adjusted basis has been largely stagnant. In the meantime the income of the top 5% of Americans has skyrocketed. The result has been the largest disparity in wealth between rich and middle class since before the great depression. Of course the ability of the middle class to support the country is failing. The top 5% is taking all the money.
And what is the Republican answer? More of the same. More cuts to programs that benefit the average American and more cuts in taxes for the richest Americans. What do Republicans say will fix America?
Kill Social Security, Kill Medicare, Kill Medicaid, Kill public education, get rid of the EPA, get rid of OSHA, get rid of unions, restrict voting by minorities and poor people, take away the ability of the average person to sue rich people and companies who injure them. But the most important thing of all is to shift more of the tax burden onto the under taxed poor and middle class and cut taxes on the rich “job creators” that we all owe a debt of gratitude for allowing the rest of us to live in the country they own and work for them.
This economic policy has been replaced by Bush 41 and Bush 43.
So do you think raising taxes is the solution? What exactly are you proposing that is different from today?
Are you enjoying your crickets? You ask a good question, which is why no one has answered it.
By saying “all came to a halt in the 80s” you are obviously implying that Reagan started the decline of America. You weren’t alive during the late 70s when Carter was President were you?
While you are at it you missed the one about Republicans pushing granny over the cliff and that they torture puppies. You should get a different set of talking points, you basically just went right down their, the Democrats, list of bad things you are supposed to say about Republicans. I guess you think the only reason Mr. 0bama hasn’t gotten everything straightened out by now is because Reagan, GHW Bush and GW Bush breathed oxygen without Democrats permission.
list of bad things you are supposed to say about Republicans.
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If you’re sane.
As with GT and every other Republican I know, you never address the facts. Which of the allegations are untrue?
Why is it, it takes a book-length monologue for you to try to deny that liberalism, and Obama, are F*#k-ups???
Just compare the economy of Bush and Obama…and you are an idiot to not admit freedom is better…
Or: look at Carter vs Reagan…you ignorant son of a b!*ches have probably convinced yourselves, Carter was better than Reagan…that’s how mother*#king stupid you are….
Every time the Republicans clean up the mess left by the last Dim. administration the stupid American voters elect another Dim. and we have to start all over again.
So you turn to the tea party to leave the Republicans a mess. Good choice.
Reciting facts takes space. It doesn’t require much space for Republicans to post, because they ignore facts.
I could have boiled the discourse down to a normal Republican level, like “Obama bad,” but I didn’t. I will now however. George W. Bush was the worst President in the last 100 years.
You sir, are generous to a fault.
I still see people flocking to retail stores in the parts of town where people actually want to spend time. Much of the faltering retail is in 1980’s-era strip malls that never had any attraction to begin with, like the strip mall in the photo. Why would anyone go to a dreary old shopping center to buy something when they could just order it online. However, if the retail is a walkable part of town where you grab a bite to eat and enjoy the day, then you’ll see a constant stream of customers.That’s my take on it, at least, and I bet a lot of people in the younger generation agree with me.
Will, about that blog you read, the Economic Collapse. I’m not saying the guy can’t be right on a number of issues (retail is definitely hurting) but I went to his website and was immediately greeted with ads to buy his book on the coming collapse, along with ads to where I can stock up on supplies when the poop hits the fan. You don’t think this guy has an agenda, do you?
BINGO!
Will isn’t gullible, like us.
Yeah, and no agenda either.
PRO TIP:
The fact that he has “an agenda” doesn’t mean he is wrong.
I understand that. It hurts his credibility but doesn’t necessarily mean he’s wrong.
Nevertheless, it’s probably wiser to get your news and analysis from a site that isn’t financially motivated to give you the worst-case scenario for just about every scenario.
The middle class has been disappearing for 30 years at least. What Henry Ford understood that the Koch brothers do not, is that when only the uber wealthy have money, their won’t be a ‘market’ for much of anything except food and yachts.
EVERYONE that spends money is a job creator, not just the 1%. When I buy a soda/beer/gas/whatever at a convenience store, I am helping the owner AND the $8 an hour clerk keep their ‘jobs’ .
Instead of worrying about how to cut the capital gains taxes down to 0, we need to work on replacing the middle class jobs that we sent to India, China, etc.
I personally witnessed the offshoring of our entire textile industry back in the 70’s and 80’s. My question Then as now was where are all the people working for minimum wage in those plants going to get the money to keep the economy going ? I guess with Obummer we see. More taxes going to food stamps for what should be productive workers out of work. I said then and now we should have tariffs to equal out the cost savings to the manufacturers so they would be “persuaded” to keep the industry here. While our factories over there are making the rest of the world happy we are suffering with our stagnant economy. Also technology is such that many of those old jobs are no more. Bush had a good thing going till 06 when the Dims took congress over and shot all he had accomplished.
Republicans are delusional. Republicans fully supported the free trade legislation that destroyed the textile industry in the US and Bush Jr. continued the policy during his administration. Remember the Bush Adm testifying before congress that outsourcing was good for the country?
As for the collapse that is all on the Republicans. They pushed through the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act that dismantled all the protections the country put in place after the great depression to prevent banks from becoming too big to fail. They ignored the arguments by Democrats that banks would become to big to fail and have to be bailed out.
As for the Democrats taking over, under Bush, at no time did they have the ability to pass anything over Bush’s veto. So go sell that delusion to the people who only watch the Fake News Network and listen to Rush and Beck.
You, sir, are the delusional one in a very profound way. I am truly grateful you are but a single vote.
So my allegations were:
1. Republicans supported free trade, (i.e. NAFTA and other agreements), and the Bush Administration said outsourcing was good for the country.
2. Republicans pushed through the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (Note Mr. Gramm, Mr. Leach and Mr. Bliley were all Republicans)
3. Democrats in Congress under Bush II had no ability to pass legislation over Bush’s veto.
So if I am delusional, which of my allegations do you contend are untrue.
First let’s look at you, there is nothing I could say or show you that you would find acceptable. Any authors I quoted or articles, think tanks or studies I referenced would be deemed bogus or in some way objectionable. Meanwhile any authors, articles or studies you referenced or quoted you would deem unassailable, gospel. So, showing you anything contrary to the sewage you spew would be an exercise in futility.
Secondly, your supposed “facts” you choose to present remind me of the “missing dollar riddle”. You bring up very loosely related but disparate “facts” and present them in a way that you claim proves a point. You conveniently ignore empirical evidence that strongly contradicts your poor and distorted point of view while reshaping data to shore up the ground you stand on.
Missing Dollar Riddle;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missing_dollar_riddle
Funny that Tom blames Republicans for NAFTA even though Clinton was the president that signed it into law.
I don’t blame anyone for NAFTA. I said the Republicans supported NAFTA.
Uh, so did Democrats. 102 in the House and 27 in the Senate. Also a Democratic president signed it into law.
That was a quick retrench by Tom.
Regardless, all this talk about NAFTA is merely a distraction from larger systemic issues surrounding the inability of America to compete in certain areas on a global scale.
Money printing has distorted our economy so fundamentally that recovery will only happen after a national bankruptcy.
Perot understood the budget issues well, but he didn’t understand the fundamental issues surrounding the money printing that was driving economic distortion and ultimately the lack of competitiveness in certain areas as capital moved towards sectors supported by money printing.
How was that a retrinch. My initial response was to a guy who was implying that Republicans were worried in the 1970s and 1980s about the outsourcing of American jobs; and I guess through some logic blamed Democrats for outsourcing the textile industry to China. I simply pointed out that was not true, that Republicans were the primary supporters of free trade, and that the Bush II Administration testified before congress that outsourcing manufacturing jobs to China was good for the country.
I believe in fair trade not free trade. I think there were alternatives that could have been better for America. Did Clinton support NAFTA, I think so, but that does not change anything I said. Nor my opinion that in the 1970s or 1980s Republicans did not give a crap about whether American jobs were outsourced. Large donors wanted free trade, they got it, and the middle class suffered.
That has nothing to do with my point. The person i was addressing was saying Republicans in the 70s and 80s were worried about American jobs being outsourced and blamed Democratic policies for the collapse of the textile industry. I was pointing out that was the exact opposite of what was occurring. That Republicans were the primary supporters of free trade and of NAFTA.
No, they weren’t. Republicans and Democrats were both equal supporters of free trade and NAFTA.
NAFTA was negotiated by Bush I. He did not finish before he was defeated. Clinton did not veto, but in retrospect he probably should have. It was by in large a Republican treaty and free trade was a Republican goal. Ross Perot said free trade agreements, like NAFTA would result in a “giant sucking sound” of jobs flowing out of the US. It seems he was correct.
102 Democrats voted for it in the House and 134 Republicans did. 27 Democrats voted for it in the Senate and 34 Republicans. A democratic president signed it into law.
“Clinton, while signing the NAFTA bill, stated that “NAFTA means jobs. American jobs, and good-paying American jobs. If I didn’t believe that, I wouldn’t support this agreement.”
There are a billion people in China, and a billion people in India… at least Canada and Mexico are our neighbors.
Well lets look at you. Nothing anyone can say or show you would persuade you that trickle down is not working. You simply stick to your belief that Republican policies will work, when they haven’t. Theories are fine, but facts are facts.
As for studies. I don’t really know what you are talking about. If you are talking about studies from the Heritage Foundation, and all those right wing think tanks you are right they will not persuade me, I would ask persuade me of what. The problem I have with Republicans is they will not discuss facts. They want to spout dogma. While you may say I am spouting Democratic talking points, I am not. These are my personal observations. Republicans generally want to dismantle programs that benefit the average American.
White man speak truth – Republicans represent the corporate interests that sent our jobs overseas.
I am going to disagree with you about tariffs and state that “protectionism” is wrong. Please do not misunderstand, a country that is gaming the system and using a government’s power to cause harm to international trade is a perfect time to use tariffs but not just because a company can save money having products manufactured overseas.
The big three US automakers tried to use “protectionism” to keep Japanese cars out of the US in the 60s and 70s. Those efforts failed and American automakers improved their manufacturing capabilities and today nearly every major international car maker has plants in the US. I remember in the late 70s the Japanese said Americans couldn’t make cars as good at the Japanese but yet today for certain models Japanese buyers have to have the car shipped to Japan from the US. Same with Mercedes and BMW.
A perfect example of free trade being best is our 50 states (57 if you’re a Democrat). Imagine if we were 50 countries rather than united states. Washington (state) would impose tariffs on SC because we stole their plane manufacturing and numerous other bickering instances of the states trying to stop one from infringing on their manufacturing.
South Carolina’s GDP falls right behind the Ukraine which is #54 in the world, even the state of Vermont, the smallest GDP of the US states, is behind Tanzania which is at #98. ALL 50 states are in the top 100 GDPs of the world, that’s free trade. Free trade encourages, neigh, forces companies to compete and improve rather than hide in the shadows of “protectionism”.
Wow, that gives me great comfort. The average South Carolinian can expect to live almost as well as the average Ukrainian.
Ummm, no.
Ukraine population 2012 was 45.5 million.
South Carolina population 2012 was 4.7 million.
So, the average South Carolinian generates as much GDP as 9.7 Ukranians.
This has nothing to do with the relative standard of living.
Exactly.
The textile industry died in the 80s not the 70s. The textile mills in SC were humming in the 70s and textile companies, like Springs and Milliken were expanding. Significant offshoring did not really begin until the 1980s..
Actually millions of jobs were lost in the first 4-5 years of Bush-43 despite the wonderful tax cuts that were suppose to create so many new jobs.
Also, Bush had veto power those last two years. It was basically gridlock until the big bailout to prevent a TOTAL financial meltdown.
DERP! KOCHTOPUS! DERP DERP!
Taken in context, the US economy between 2004 and 2008 fueled retail sales with approximately $7 trillion in equity lending on their primary residence – equity that it turned out was based on a valuation bubble. At the same time, despite a period of increasing wages between 1994 and 2001, wages went flat and then declined along with an annual inflation rate of near 5.5%. So it’s not surprising retail sales remain lower than say 7 years ago. The same way that retail sales in 1935 were most certainly lower than in 1927. The flip side to that is over the past five years households have reduced their debt burdens, and spending has rebounded. As for empty strip malls, they were overbuilt in the 2006-2008 time frame, and it could take up to another 5 years for the excess capacity to be absorbed. (And you add to that the dismal wages of most rural and suburban areas of South Carolina, with no hope in site for better days ahead – well – it’s a Great Day in South Carolina”)
Just STFU you Dumb@$$. Quit making overly-labored and ignorant excuses and ADMIT your god-Obama is a MONSTER F*#king FAILURE…
PS: Didn’t you brag about your job being so profitable under Obama???..But you never told me what you do for a living…
Said you just bought a beach house…Are you a government worker, if not, what do you do to make so much money????
You just can’t stand facts can you?
During Bush’s EIGHT YEARS: Gas was $1.50 less a gal. on avg. Salaries rose, unemployment was way lower and opportunity was abundant…Under your god…we’re in a miserable depression, economically, spiritually and emotionally. And it’s Obama’s fault…
That’s the FACTS…@$$hole…and that is undeniable….
Actually wages began declining in the most recent spiral in 2002 and never recovered under the prior administration. The financial crisis, and the housing bubble the caused it, was created under the last president who artificially kept mortgage rates low by begging the Chinese and Koreans to pump billions into the purchase of mortgage back securities to fix the poor balance of trade, and negligent oversight to thrifts offering toxic mortgages by have the OTS look the other way. Where we are today is a direct result of 8 years of failed economic policies by boy blunder. The only thing we can take solice in is that Palin isn’t in the White House. Then things would be much, much worse.
PS – I work in private industry for a Fortune 500.
Obama Enterprises is Fortune 500?
What? Sorry – missed that. Today’s the day the government cuts our checks – I was in line talking on my Obama phone, whilest getting my new EBT so I could get in on that lobster tail deal and the Golden Corral.
If you do work for the private sector, I doubt it is successful. I think you are a liar. I’ve been on these forums for years and you have ‘lair’ written all over you, aside from the obviously erroneous data you present.
And you are fairly ignorant, too, to offer information that is so false, as if no one knows better.
you have ‘lair’ written all over you
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another journalistic phrase the spell-checker didn’t find, Will?
Attack the messenger is the most common tactic for a losing case. Assume you didn’t pick that up from journalism school or any law classes. If I’m ignorant you need to blame graduate school at USC – class of 92.
Joe Miller defended accusing Obama of “apartheid” against religious groups; said private employers “have the right to do what you want with respect to your business,” including discrimination; and warned of “turnkey tyranny” under NSA surveillance.
on avg.
——
idiot.
When you look at what animates the tea party, there are several different hatreds that are core to the tea party. They hate welfare. Especially, or particularly welfare that’s understood as going to minorities. Not social security, for instance, but rather food stamps.
Next, they’re obsessed about Muslims and Islam. And they really see this sort of threatening, this external threat in the form of the Middle East, but also ostensibly an internal threat of Muslims coming into the United States …
They’re deeply concerned about undocumented immigrants, especially undocumented immigrants from Mexico. Finally, they hate President Obama.
And Obama seems to combine both this sense of welfare, of being a Muslim, of being a brown foreign other, right?
“undocumented immigrants”..you mean illegal aliens, people who are here, illegally? Who by their very presence on US soil, are breaking a federal law? Those folks?
Is there any other country you can just walk into, and stay, and become a ward of the state just by showing up?
Is there any other country you can just walk into, and stay, and become a ward of the state just by showing up?
Depends on the definition of “ward of the state”…
It is our destiny to lead.
I think it’s our destiny to bleed myself.
Maybe you should look into a syntax checker – or one of those things Neo used in the Matrix to learn kung fu.
And CNS is reporting: Labor Force Participation Hits Record Low for Americans in Their 20s…
What a bunch of Dumb@$$#$, along w/ Black voters, who have been shafted by this charlatan who told them to vote for REVENGE. Little did these idiots know, it was REVENGE on them….so Obama could live like a slothful, and corrupt king.
You changed your image. You should have just taken a selfie of your ass and used that, Will.
Grand Tango is someone’s puppet – that’s for sure.
Your big box retailers have enormous overhead to keep up with. It’s no surprise, as folks are tending to trend more local these days anyhow. Local owner, or local franchise has much bigger impact on the community.
Have you ever tried to buy a TV, or dishwasher from a “local owner”? No. Noone does.
Look at the economic health of the most-democrat voting sections of SC…..(Dillon, Hampton, Marion, Jasper, Marlboro, Williamsburg)…..
Then look at the economic health where they vote mostly Republican….(Greenville, Lexington, Spartanburg, Oconee)…..
No need to write a tortured treatise trying to tell us that liberalism is NOT really a failure. Your record speaks for itself…
there is really not a dime’s worth of difference between Republican conservatism and the conservatism of those trying to unseat them. Sure, there is genuine disagreement over tactics and perceptions of ideological purity, but, like most political fights, it’s mostly about those who have power wanting to keep it, those who don’t have power wanting to take it and those who benefit from fanning the flames of discord wanting to make a bundle of cash for their efforts.
Correct on every account, but it doesn’t dispute his point that Democrat controlled areas suffer and Republican controlled areas are more prosperous. You can see the same on the national level whether one looks at cities or states. Republicans are working their way down the same road Democrats are on but for now at least the Democrats are far in the lead (of decline).
it doesn’t dispute his point that Democrat controlled areas suffer and Republican controlled areas are more prosperous.
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no, that’s simply wrong on its face.
Come on – Lexington is nothing more than an enclave of state employees with management jobs under Nikki (sometimes on top – but usually under).
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… more on http://www.fitsnews.com »
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All this could be taken care off if we cut taxes for big Corporations and millionaires.
Pre-election: democrats tell you how bad a great economy is, but how good it’s gonna be when they get elected.
Post-election: democrats tell you it was worse than they ever imagined, and the other guy (who out-performed them by miles) broke it so bad, it can’t be fixed. But elect them again, anyway….
He’s really good at ‘chocking’ it full of data that supports his point all right – just not pertinent data that tells the true tale? Since 1984 brick and mortar retail stores have grown at EIGHT TIMES the population – even if you took out the fact that the internet came along AND that real wages in the US have been stagnant since about 1977 – does this eventuality really mean an economic collapse, or just that we overbuilt for about 30 years at an alarming pace???
consignment stores, dollar general, dollar tree, etc. these stores are becoming more popular…why, b/c government policies continue to implement policies that have a direct impact on citizens. we, the citizens, absorb the costs. who else does? when regulations are placed on business, these costs must be passed along to the consumer. if the business absorb the cost, they do not have money to continue to operate their businesses. private businesses are not like the government. if they do not produce a profit, they are out of business. when the government has cost overruns, they just raise taxes. UNTIL CITIZENS REALIZE THE MONEY COMES FROM THEM….these people continue to be able to increase the tax burden on the citizens.
businesses are closing b/c of enormous cost to implement regulations. people are living on the edge, b/c the government is growing and the middle class is shrinking. POLICIES AND POLITICIANS.
how is it, the government can fine and issue subpoenas to private industry’s wanting answers, BUT, this government doesn’t have to answer questions related to BENGAZI, the IRS, THEIR affordable care act.
DOUBLE STANDARD, HYPOCRITICAL, ELITIST, OPPRESSIVE AND TYRANNICAL.
WHAT’S GOOD FOR YOU DOESN’T APPLY TO US!!!