Earlier this month we touched on recent data from Gallup signaling a less merry holiday shopping season in 2013, but the truth is leading indicators are all over the map.
The first thing to bear in mind? This year’s holiday shopping season is much shorter than usual, with Thanksgiving falling on the very latest possible day – November 28. Last year it fell on November 22 – the earliest possible day.
Who do we have to thank for this schedule? Franklin D. Roosevelt, who bowed to pressure from the leading retailers of his day – including Fred Lazarus, Jr., founder of Federated Department Stores (later Macy’s).
Nothing new under the sun, huh?
Anyway … with a narrow window to work with retailers are ramping up their Thanksgiving Day sales pitches. And early indications are their efforts are bearing fruit – with 23.5 percent of consumers saying they will hit the stores on Thanksgiving.
That figure comes courtesy of the National Retail Federation (NRF) – which is predicting holiday spending growth of 3.9 percent in 2013. Last year growth was 3.5 percent. In 2011 it was 5.1 percent.
Will that prediction pan out?
Depends … according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real disposable income in the most recent quarter was up 4.5 percent from the third quarter of 2012 (compared to a quarterly jump of 1.7 percent a year ago).
Does that mean consumers will spend more, though?
Maybe … NRF says Americans plan to spend an average of $737 on holiday shopping this year (a.k.a. $602 billion). That’s below 2012’s average of $749.50 and 2011’s mark of $741. But it’s well above Gallup’s projection of $704.
A few other factors to consider: Consumer debt is at a five-year high ($11.3 trillion) meaning many Americans have recently bought homes or cars. That’s good news for the economy as a whole but it could inhibit holiday spending. Meanwhile consumer confidence is shakier this year than it was last November – which could also dampen sales.
Bottom line? We’ll have to wait and see …
4 comments
The only thing America makes any more, is financial instruments with funny money.
Consider an American Xmas as one giant stimulus package for China Inc.
They get our constantly devalued currency, we get a pile of shitty/cheap goods that add little value to our daily lives and if we are lucky have no toxins in them.
Ho Ho Ho!
Why do you keep bringing more snot-nosed babies into this miserable,depressing USA,since it’s all so bad?
Franklin D Roosevelt? Regale us,please.
All you know about JFK’s assassination came from an awful,Oliver Stone movie.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6kHN92Yv48
The private market is free to run whatever sales they want whenever they want. FDR didn’t sign a law stating that they couldn’t discount items to drum up consumerism until -after- Thanksgiving.
I thought government-sponsored holidays weren’t a core function of government. Clearly what’s needed here is to abolish Thanksgiving entirely, that way people can decide for themselves if/when to celebrate whatever holiday of thanks (and take vacation days to do so) and the free market can decide when to hock their cheap junk.
Corporations know best, maybe they should make the holidays so the government doesn’t have to?
I don’t think the pre FDR schedule was all that different. He changed it from the last Thursday of the month to the fourth Thursday.