The Bad News Behind Falling Crime Rates

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

by DR. CHRIS SHARP

***

We have all heard the good news of the falling crime rates in much of the United States over the last two years. While any drop in crime is a good development, we should not be lulled into thinking that we have a safe —or even safer—society.

The truth is that America is safe for some but dangerous for many, and for people in every group, America is far more dangerous than any of our peer countries. Comparing only 2023 and 2024 data gives an inaccurate picture, as does comparing current crime rates to the heightened 1990 numbers.

More specifically, the numbers are an aggregate, meaning, for example, that all of Chicago is rolled into one overall crime rate, despite vast variability in crime among neighborhoods, even when they are only blocks apart. 

***

When we break Chicago into specific districts, we start to see a different story. The data for District 11, consistently the highest in crime, tells a compelling story. Considering the spike in crime during COVID, and comparing 2019 to 2024, District 11 had 71 murders, 111 rapes, 732 robberies, and 12,752 arrests. All of this was in an area with a population of 81,637 (making rates for these crimes 87 murders, 136 rapes, and 897 robberies per 100,000).

In 2024, with a population of 68,970, there were 51 murders, 97 rapes, 672 robberies, and only 4,793 arrests. That equals a rate per 100,000 of 74 murders (a 15 percent decrease from 2019), 141 rapes (a 4 percent increase), and 974 robberies (an 8 percent increase). Yet, the narrative is that crime has gotten better since 2023.

The other problem is that the Chicago Police Department has dropped from 14,221 sworn and civilian personnel in 2019 to 11,553 in 2024—a 19 percent reduction. 

***

***

The story is similar—or worse—in other cities across America. Memphis is regularly found to be one of the most dangerous cities in the United States. Memphis had an overall murder rate of five per 100,000 in 2019 (steadily rising from 2017 and 2018), and 39.7 in 2024 (an 83.5 percent increase). Yet, when we dive into specific locations within Memphis, the area with the zip code 38118 stands out. Crime maps show this area as being consistently high in crime, with a murder rate of 20.4 per 100,000 people in 2019 and jumping to 63.5 in 2024 (37 percent higher than the average for the rest of the city). Like Chicago, the city of Memphis has been experiencing a significant reduction in the number of officers since 2014.

While some may argue that crime, especially violent crime, is down in the U.S., the view is very narrowly focused. While we are nowhere near 1990 levels, violent crime rates do show an upward trend, even when accounting for the COVID spike. This is especially true of homicide, which is beginning to come very close to what we saw in the 1990s. There was also a switch to the National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) in 2021, which has cost agencies time and money, and has led to underutilization for reporting. Add all of this to the nationwide shortage in sworn officers to respond to crime, and we have a recipe for bad data and an unrealistic view of crime in the United States.

Even more worrisome is that with all of this “positive news” on falling crime rates, we lose sight of areas within cities that have only experienced crime rising.

***

RELATED | THE LOGAN FEDERICO CASE

***

But there is a two-fold solution. First, the public needs granular data down to the zip code to allow communities and individuals to make informed decisions. Police agencies have this information available through their individual agency crime mapping capabilities, and it needs to be more widely available. This will allow researchers to see those trends over time for good policy.

Second, cities need to invest in policing. Our European counterparts have more than 300 officers per 100,000 compared to the United States’ 198 per 100,000 — despite the U.S. being arguably more violent. Investing in police and the profession of policing yields greater rewards than investing in prisons, and has a significant impact on reducing crime, yet we haven’t done it because of bad data leading to bad politics. Instead, we should be learning from our European counterparts and investing taxpayer dollars where they have the most impact, based on good information. 

As a society, we like to think we’re “doing something” to fight crime and we turn to government data sources to tell us how we’re doing. Unfortunately, the data is flawed, missing, or simply just bad. We lose track of the community-level crime when focused on national, state, or even county crime trends. Bad data leads to bad policy and undercuts the need for more officers to keep us safe. 

***

ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Dr. Chris Sharp is a senior fellow at the Cicero Institute where he focuses on state legislation and policy addressing homelessness, public safety, and higher education. Chris received his Ph.D. in Public Affairs with an emphasis in Criminal Justice Administration. 

***

WANNA SOUND OFF?

Got something you’d like to say in response to one of our articles? Or an issue you’d like to address proactively? We have an open microphone policy! Submit your letter to the editor (or guest column) via email HERE. Got a tip for a story? CLICK HERE. Got a technical question or a glitch to report? CLICK HERE.