Latest Inflation Data: Can It Be Trusted?

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by WILL FOLKS

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With public faith in the accuracy of economic data provided by the federal government at an all-time low, new inflation numbers released this week by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will doubtless be the focus of intense scrutiny.

As they should be…

Earlier this month, questionable BLS employment data sparked significant controversy – prompting U.S. president Donald Trump to fire BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer.

According to the latest BLS release (.pdf), the consumer price index (CPI) – a basket of goods and services purchased by urban consumers – increased by 0.2% in July from the previous month. On an annualized basis, inflation is now up 2.7% – identical to where it was in June.

Not all the news was good, though. Core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – climbed by 0.3% from the previous month and is up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. That’s the highest annualized uptick since February, Trump’s first full month back in office.

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Also, so-called “SuperCore CPI” – which excludes food, energy and shelter costs – ticked up by 0.55% and is up 3.59% year-over-year. That latter print was also the highest on record since February.

For his part, Trump blasted his critics, stating “trillions of dollars are being taken in on tariffs, which has been incredible for our country, its stock market, its general wealth and just about everything else.”

“It has been proven, that even at this late stage, tariffs have not caused inflation, or any other problems for (our) country, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers,” Trump added. “Also, it has been show that, for the most part, consumers aren’t even paying these tariffs, it is mostly companies and governments, many of them foreign, picking up the tab.”

Trump singled out Goldman Sachs in particular for criticism, calling on the bank’s chief executive officer David Solomon to fire its top economist.

“They made a bad prediction a long time ago on both the market repercussion and the tariffs themselves, and they were wrong, just like they are wrong about so much else,” Trump said.

Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, wasn’t fired, though. In fact, his office doubled down on its prediction.

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RELATED | JULY 2025 JOBS REPORT

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“Our estimates imply that U.S. consumers had absorbed 22% of tariff costs through June but that their share will likely rise to 67% by October if the later tariffs have the same impact over time as the earliest tariffs,” a note from the bank suggested.

As FITSNews has previously pointed out, Trump’s culpability on current price points is up for debate – with most analysts believing tariffs are (for the moment) not contributing disproportionately to inflationary pressures. Still, Trump’s contributions to the inflationary debt bomb beginning to sink its teeth into our economy are undeniable – not unlike his contributions to “Bidenflation.”

For those of you keeping score at home, the optimum rate of annual inflation is approximately 2% – a rate of growth which indicates the economy is creating jobs, raising incomes and adding investment.

The economy consistently failed to hit that target under former president Barack Obama. The annual rate of inflation for 2016 was just 1.26% while in 2015 it clocked in at a meager 0.12%.  The two percent threshold was also missed in 2014 (1.62%) and 2013 (1.47%).

During Trump’s first term, inflation hit its target rate in 2017 (2.1%) and 2018 (2.4%) but slipped just below it the following year (1.8%). In 2020, inflation registered an anemic 1.2% thanks in large part to the Covid-19 shutdown.

Under former president Joe Biden, inflation peaked at 8% in 2022 – four times its optimal level – while clocking in at 4.7% in 2021, 4.1% in 2023 and 3.2% last year.

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THE RELEASE…

(BLS)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and eight children.

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