DeSantis Discovers Political Gravity in Dismal New Polling

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With the country still recovering from last year’s presidential campaign, the 2028 race seems eons away – except for those in the political crowd. Activists and operatives – the ones who shape elections before they happen – always have one eye fixed on the current moment and the other on what lies around the bend.

For Republicans in particular, the coming cycle will bring something new: it will be the first time in 12 years the name “Trump” hasn’t appeared on primary ballots (or so we think). This means many party insiders are currently busy sizing up contenders for the GOP standard bearer who will follow him. And the early news isn’t encouraging for one possibility.

Ron DeSantis is learning the same fundamental truth Sir Isaac Newton discovered nearly 350 years ago: What goes up must come down.

The Florida governor roared onto the national scene with the strength of a hurricane back in late 2022. His reelection that November was a romp at the polls, a political tour de force that left even hardboiled campaign veterans in awe. He racked up a 59.3% to 39.9% triumph, sweeping 62 of the Sunshine State’s 67 counties—including Miami-Dade, a Democratic bastion that hadn’t gone Republican for 20 years.

Then came a series of stumbles, missed opportunities, bad calls… and bad luck. In the end, Donald Trump flattened him like a steamroller – just like he said he would.

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DeSantis had the good sense to drop out of the primary contest before seriously pissing off Trump and the MAGA base, thus preserving his chances to fight again another day.

Or, maybe not.

New polling paints a bleak picture for the governor’s prospects.

Let’s say Trump finds a way to do an end run around the U.S. Constitution and winds up seeking a third term in 2028. A new Daily Mail poll shows DeSantis would be slaughtered. It has Trump at 39%, followed by Vice President J.D. Vance with 19%. DeSantis lags far behind with a dismal 6%. Secretary of State and fellow Floridian Marco Rubio brings up the rear, barely a blimp on the radar screen with a mere 3%.

But let’s take Trump out of the equation. Things should look better for DeSantis in that scenario, right? Wrong.

In a Trump-free field, Vance vaults to front-runner status with 48% while DeSantis inches up to 8% and Rubio only manages 5%.

What do the numbers mean?

“MAGA supporters have long memories,” a Washington-based GOP strategist not affiliated with any campaign told us. “Elephants forgot before MAGA does. DeSantis dared run against Trump in ’24, and Rubio ran against him in ’16. All may be forgiven within the Republican family, but it hasn’t been forgotten.”

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That’s not how a South Carolina Republican operative sees it. 

“DeSantis has lost that new candidate smell,” he told us. “In late 2022, Republicans were reeling from a dismal midterm election cycle. Remember the whole “Blue Wave” thing? DeSantis’ stellar win was the only, and I mean the only, bright spot for conservatives. Then he squandered it in one swoop with his amateur hour presidential campaign. Now the bloom is off the rose. There’s nothing new to attract Republican primary voters’ interest. Just one impressive win three years ago that’s growing smaller and smaller in the party’s rearview mirror.”

Other recent polling supports that view.

An Atlas Intel poll from last month shows DeSantis and Rubio tied at 9% each, but both badly behind Vance at 60%.

Ditto for the Yale Youth and Echelon Insights polls from April, which also have him at 9%.

The news is slightly better—though still nothing to write home about—in a recent Overton Insights poll that placed DeSantis at 13% among Republican-leaning voters and 14% with strictly registered Republicans.

Even the much-ballyhooed straw poll at this year’s CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) detected only a flutter of support. While Vance once again led with 61%, the eye-raiser was the prospective candidate who came in second … conservative gadfly Steve Bannon, who scored 12%. Once again, the two-term governor of the nation’s third-most populated state could only muster an anemic 7%.

“That tells me one important thing,” the D.C. strategist shared with us. “At this admittedly early stage of the game, when Republicans are looking to the future of their party, they’re looking beyond Ron DeSantis.”

DeSantis has stated publicly that he “hasn’t ruled anything out” – and there are no shortage of conservative GOP voters who admire his record in the Sunshine State.

If DeSantis does decide to take a second stab at the brass ring, he would have one advantage the next time around. His term as governor ends in January 2027. In other words, he wouldn’t have his day job getting in the way of running the next time around.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…

J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.

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