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There was something for each major political party to crow about in Tuesday’s trio of elections. Because this was the first significant voting held since President Donald Trump took office in January, all three races carried an out-sized significance.
To hear media pundits and the legacy MSM tell it today, Democrat-backed Susan Crawford’s victory over Republican former state Attorney General and Judge Brad Schimel is the death knell for Trump, the MAGA movement, and DOGE chief Elon Musk.
Make no mistake, Crawford’s win was a serious rebuke to them all. As indicated by the double digit margin of victory for the Democrat. There was also the race’s $67 million price tag, making it the costliest contest of its kind ever in Badger State history. There was also an influx of political operatives from around the country on both sides who crisscrossed Wisconsin over the last 30 days.
Then, there was Musk’s direct involvement in the race. The billionaire dug deep into his own pocket to finance efforts pushing Schimel—including giving $1 million checks each to two locals he described as “spokespersons” for a petition drive attacking “activist judges.” (The state’s Supreme Court declined to wade into a legal challenge to that giveaway).
All that high-profile attention paid off at the ballot box when the race set a record for the highest turnout for a Supreme Court election.
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Crawford on the bench means the court will now have a decidedly liberal majority at last through 2028, with significant decisions on abortion rights and election laws looming.
But it is in redistricting challenges where the state’s high court could make a lasting national impact. Republicans currently have a 6-2 majority in Wisconsin’s U.S. House delegation. Democrats eagerly want to redraw lines to create new congressional districts more favorable to them so they can pick up additional seats—and reclaim the House majority on Capitol Hill, too.
While Democrats’ Wisconsin win – and its margin – filled the sails of the minority party, some 1,200 miles to the south Republicans were heaving a momentary sigh of relief after triumphing in twin congressional races there on Tuesday.
In the Florida Panhandle, Republican Jimmy Patronis, the state’s former chief financial officer, easily hung on to the seat previously held by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, Trump’s short-lived first choice for U.S. Attorney General. In the central part of Sunshine State, the margin of victory was closer, but still comfortable, for GOP candidate and former state senator Randy Fine. He won the seat vacated when former Rep. Mike Waltz resigned to become Trump’s national security director.
The Democratic challengers in both races had likewise tried to paint them as a referendum on Trump in general and Musk in particular. As happened in Wisconsin, there was a similar infusion of money and political strategists from outside the Sunshine State.
But there, the similarities ended.
Though both Patronis and Fine had smaller margins of victory than last November’s races for the same seats, it should be noted that was a presidential election, which always attracts more voters, while Tuesday’s races were special elections, which traditionally have far smaller turnout.
In other words, Democrats’ anti-Trump, anti-Musk, anti-DOGE messaging didn’t sell in red districts.
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But it was a different story in Wisconsin. While Musk had frequently appeared at Trump rallies in the closing weeks of last fall’s campaign – and while his personal money was hard at work behind the scenes – he was there in a supporting role to Trump, the star attraction.
Wisconsin was Musk’s first foray into the political spotlight all on his own – “and he blew it,” a national Republican strategist in Washington told us late Tuesday night.
“This was clearly Musk’s baby, obviously with the White House’s approval,” the operative said. “And it was a stillborn baby. That’s not going to put him in good with his boss, who has an infamously low tolerance for failure.”
The Wisconsin result is significant for several other reasons as well. First, it allows Democrats to redirect the national conversation in their favor. The narrative now moves from “can Democrats get their act together?” to “can Democrats replicate what happened in Wisconsin elsewhere in the country?”
Second, it’s a major burst of wind in the sails for a party that’s been foundering since November’s defeat.
Third – combined with several other developments this week- Wisconsin will embolden Democrats to grow more aggressive in pushing back against Trump and the MAGA movement. That includes Tuesday’s Senate talkathon by New Jersey’s Cory Booker (who railed against Trump for a record-setting 25 hours) and Tuesday’s unusually harsh rebuke from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of Waltz’s use of Gmail to discuss hush-hush matters (he’s “totally and completely unqualified to be in a sensitive national security position”).
Yet despite Democrat spin that Wisconsin is a harbinger of victory ahead in next year’s midterms (and a restoration of Democratic control of Capitol Hill), it is far too early to cede that claim. However, it does indicate trouble ahead for the White House in the near term. Also, look for Musk’s wings to be clipped as a result. Just how severely and how long it lasts will reveal a lot about his new standing in Trump’s eyes.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
J. Mark Powell is an award-winning former TV journalist, government communications veteran, and a political consultant. He is also an author and an avid Civil War enthusiast. Got a tip or a story idea for Mark? Email him at mark@fitsnews.com.
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