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Current president Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump each clinched their party’s presidential nomination last week, unofficially capping the 2024 primary season. But as we await the sealing of the deal(s) at this summer’s Democratic and Republican National Conventions, will supporters of the two major party nominees experience buyer’s remorse?
And, if so, what other options might be available to them this fall?
Just because GOP and Democratic primary voters have spoken as to their presidential preferences, it doesn’t mean the interests propping up these party establishments are going to go along with those choices. And unlike the last election, they have several levers they can pull this go-round in an effort to try and invalidate the will of primary voters.
Specifically, how could Trump’s ongoing legal issues – and Biden’s deteriorating mental acuity – encourage insider bids in both camps aimed at ousting these two unpopular standard-bearers?
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Over the past year, founding editor Will Folks and political columnist Mark Powell have been monitoring 2024 presidential developments via our Palmetto Political Stock Index. As previously noted, each installment is an assessment of how our subjects fared over the previous seven days. Positive reports don’t reflect endorsements, and negative ones aren’t (necessarily) indicative of vendettas. We just call ‘em like we see ‘em.
To view the most recent index, click here. And to get your historical fix, click here.
Got a hot “stock tip” for our consideration? Email Will (here) and/ or Mark (here). Just make sure to include “Palmetto Political Stock Index” in the subject line.
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DONALD TRUMP
STOCK: HOLDING
If Donald Trump’s legal woes were a soap opera, it could be called “All My Lawyers.” There’s been a cloudburst of news for him in various courtrooms in the past few days – news which has a direct bearing on his bid for a second term in office.
Arguably the biggest development came last Friday in Atlanta when a Fulton County superior court judge ruled that either Democratic district attorney Fani Willis – or her former lover and special prosecutor, Nathan Wade – must leave their case against Trump
Wade walked the plank – allowing Willis to stay on. But the damage was done. Earlier in the week, the same judge dismissed three of the indictments against Trump – prompting legal observers to wonder whether the rest of the case is fundamentally flawed.
Then there’s Manhattan, where a New York state judge approved a thirty-day delay of the start of Trump’s criminal trial on a 2016 hush money payment. Trump is trying to get all of his legal woes put off until after the 2024 election.
What is the political impact of all this courtroom maneuvering? Slim to none.
Trump continues to lead Biden in the polls in critical swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada – all states he lost in 2020. If those leads hold, Trump will reclaim the White House.
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ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.
STOCK: HOLDING
Speculation is swirling that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be joined on his independent presidential ticket by California attorney Nicole Shanahan. She’s the über-liberal, deep-pocketed lawyer who bankrolled Kennedy’s pricey Super Bowl TV ad a few weeks back.
Just how rich is Shanahan? Her former husband co-founded Google. ‘Nuff said.
Kennedy’s official announcement is slated for March 26 in Oakland, California – concluding a selection process that was every bit as quixotic as the candidate himself. Kennedy released an eclectic list of potential veeps last week that included New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers and former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown. (Both swiftly said, “Thanks, but no thanks.”)
Kennedy must have a declared running mate in order to get on November’s ballot in several states. And while no political observer thinks RFK Jr. has a snowball’s chance of moving into the same big mansion in downtown D.C. where Uncle Jack lived 60 years ago, he does have the potential to lure away votes from Trump, Biden – or both.
And should the 2024 election turns out to be as close as some predict, his campaign has the possibility of being a game-changer.
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JOE BIDEN
STOCK: FALLING
The floundering president’s campaign is taking on more water than a camel filling up for cross Sahara trek.
First, there was the State of the Union bounce that wasn’t. Most presidents enjoy a modest uptick in the polls immediately after delivering their annual address. (Ever wondered why it’s always held in TV’s primest of prime-time slots?)
Not so with Joe Biden. More than a week later, his numbers continued rivaling those Jack the Ripper would have gotten.
Then there’s the economy and the nagging problem that just won’t go away: Bidenflation. Last Monday, Biden rode Air Force One up to Manchester, New Hampshire for a bit of damage control after personally trashing the Granite State’s ‘First in the Nation’ presidential primary tradition. It was billed as a “Lowering Costs for American Families” tour. (Though tellingly, the White House didn’t announce where or when Biden would be speaking in a bid to shake off those pesky pro-Palestinian protestors who’ve been dogging him and chanting “Genocide Joe” at campaign events).
Biden talked a good game, though his words eerily echoed his Depression-era predecessor Herbert Hoover’s “prosperity is just around the corner” line. (Spoiler alert: it wasn’t.) He garnished that spin by saying things are better for everyday folks with him in the White House and touting how inflation is under control.
Less than 24 hours later, though, his own Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported prices rose another 3.2 percent in February, higher than expected for the second month in a row. Biden responded with a statement full of business school mumbo jumbo: “Inflation is down two-thirds from its peak, and annual core inflation is near a three-year low.” (Though one seriously doubts if the core inflation rate is on the mind of average South Carolina moms and dads when they swipe their card to pay for record-high groceries.)
“But we have more to do to give the middle class a fair shot,” Biden’s statement added.
Underscoring that was word coming the next day that the economy is so good, Family Dollar is closing nearly a thousand stores.
Prosperity is just around the corner, right?
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TIKTOK
STOCK: FALLING
Is the clock ticking for the wildly popular (and Chinese-owned) TikTok social media platform? The U.S. House overwhelmingly passed a measure last week that would ban the app beloved by millions of teens and Gen Z’ers – unless it is sold to an American company. According to the lawmakers who voted in favor of the ban, TikTok poses serious national security concerns because it collects user’s personal data, and its parent company has close ties to the Chinese Communist Party.
Opponents questioned some of the legislation’s definitions – accusing its sponsors of creating a Trojan Horse.
In an incredible burst of having it both ways, Biden said he would sign the ban if it reached his desk … even though his reelection campaign has been aggressively using TikTok to persuade young voters that an 81-year-old guy is actually cool and hip after all.
Meanwhile, there’s word former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is putting together an investor group to buy TikTok, should it become available. No doubt other investors are likewise licking their lips while making similar contingency plans to snap up the highly lucrative app – which may have been the real point of the “ban.”
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THE DEBATE OVER DEBATES
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STOCK: FALLING
Six months out, pundits are already wondering: “Could this be the first election since 1976 without a presidential debate?”
If that seems premature, remember these televised encounters are elaborately orchestrated affairs. Months of negotiations and planning are required. They are such a large draw that the press room alone – where reporters write their stories while watching the encounter on big-screen TVs – routinely has more journalists than the population of some South Carolina crossroads towns. Pulling one off is no small feat.
Trump is already champing at the bit to go toe-to-toe with the guy who kicked him out of the White House four years ago. He posted on Truth Social recently that he’s eager to take on his successor “anytime, anywhere, anyplace.”
Biden? Not so much. Frankly, his obvious cognitive decline would put him at an instant disadvantage – which also explains why Trump is so hot to trot for a debate. Even during an event as highly scripted as the recent State of the Union Address, Biden committed a slew of wrong names and specific detail gaffes. Just imagine him muddling through 90 minutes without his Teleprompter security blanket.
Yet for a president who repeatedly proclaims, “our democracy is in grave danger,” to take a powder from such an intrinsically democratic tradition as a candidate’s debate would be a very bad look. And you can bet your bottom dollar Trump would howl about it right up to Election Day, too.
Watching Team Biden try to thread this needle will be a study in political contortionism …
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KAMALA HARRIS
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STOCK: FALLING
Speaking of a bad look, vice president Kamala Harris was back in the news last week – and not for a good reason.
She made history on Thursday by becoming the first sitting president or vice president to visit a Planned Parenthood clinic. It’s the latest evidence of the Biden-Harris bid to make abortion – not the imploding economy or the crisis as the border (which was supposed to be Harris’ job) – the dominant issue of the 2024 election.
“In this environment, these attacks against an individual’s right to make decisions about their own body are outrageous, and in many instances just plain old immoral,” she said in remarks aimed a portraying Republicans as intent on bringing “The Handmaid’s Tale” to life. Of course, Harris did not explain how she claimed the moral high ground by slandering abortion opponents as ‘immoral” – a word whose irony was not lost on pro-life supporters.
Step by step, Harris and her boss are increasingly showing they’re unwilling to leave any traditional stone unturned in their quest to hold on to power. Aside from Harris’ historic Planned Parenthood facility visit, we had Biden’s transformation of the State of the Union Address into an overtly Democratic campaign infomercial, Biden’s first presidential visit to a striking union picket line last year and of course the unprecedented weaponization of the legal system to go after a political opponent.
What’s next? Rigging an election?
Note to Team Trump, the RNC, and top-tier GOP strategists: These guys are playing the hardest of hardball – and they’re playing for keeps. Heaven help you if you’re not ready to match them blow for blow.
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