Southeast Braces For Hurricane Idalia

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The American southeast is bracing for what will likely be the first landfall of a major hurricane during the 2023 season. And this storm is coming faster than you think …

As of the 1:00 p.m. CDT Monday advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida, Tropical Storm Idalia was located approximately 280 miles south-southwest of the Dry Tortugas, moving north at roughly eight miles per hour. The storm’s maximum sustained winds topped out at 70 miles per hour – making it a very strong tropical storm, one “strengthening as it nears the western tip of Cuba.”

Another storm – Franklin – has attainted category four status on the Saffir-Simpson scale, however its forecast track calls for it to peel off to the north – away from the continental United States.

America is unlikely to be so lucky with Idalia … which is forecast to undergo rapid intensification over the next 36 hours.

“Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday,” NHC forecasters noted.

Not only that, its projected path has it plowing through the Big Bend/ Apalachee Bay region of Florida as a major hurricane sometime early Wednesday morning … with the Sunshine State, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina in its crosshairs after it makes landfall.

Take a look …

(Click to View)

Florida governor Ron DeSantis – who is campaigning for the American presidency – has already declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Idalia’s arrival for 46 of Florida’s 67 counties.

“Pretty much anybody on the west coast of Florida, you could see major, major impacts,” DeSantis said, urging residents in the path of the storm to move inland. “You do not need to leave the state of Florida. You just need to find higher ground. The key is to not be in those areas with big time storm surge.”

As for those outside of the storm’s path, DeSantis noted “these things can wobble, so Floridians along our Gulf Coast should be vigilant even if you’re currently outside the cone.”

DeSantis canceled a pair of campaign stops in early-voting South Carolina due to the hurricane – including a visit to U.S. congressman Jeff Duncan‘s 12th annual Faith and Freedom BBQ.

“In light of the approaching hurricane, the Governor will be staying in Florida on Monday to assist with preparations,” his press secretary noted on social media Sunday. “First lady Casey DeSantis will be attending congressman Jeff Duncan’s Faith and Freedom BBQ in place of the governor.”

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So far, 2023 has produced a total of ten tropical depressions – including two hurricanes and one major hurricane (the aforementioned Franklin). Only one storm – Harold – has impacted the continental United States.

Last year was projected to be another busy hurricane season but it actually produced fewer storms than expected. Unfortunately, those storms wreaked all sorts of havoc – especially Hurricane Ian, which killed an estimated 155 people and did $113 billion in damage after making landfall as a category four storm on Cayo Costa Island in Florida.

Tropical activity has been on the wane since 2020, which was the most active season since records have been kept in the Atlantic basin. That year brought 30 named storms – of which 14 became hurricanes and seven (7) became major hurricanes. A new record for named storms (11) making landfall in the United States was also established in 2020, while the year tied a record for named storms (10) undergoing “rapid intensification”- i.e. a 35-mile-per-hour increase in maximum sustained winds over a 24-hour period.

Courtesy of our the incredible Jenn Wood, here is some historical perspective on these systems …

As for the Palmetto State, according to the latest comprehensive hurricane survey (.pdf) from the S.C. Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR) it has seen 44 tropical cyclones make landfall along its coastline since 1851. Of those systems, only four (4) arrived onshore as major hurricanes: The 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane, Hurricane Hazel in 1954, Hurricane Gracie in 1959, and Hurricane Hugo in 1989. No category five hurricanes have ever hit the Palmetto State’s 187-mile coastline.

The Palmetto State was nearly hit in 2020 by Hurricane Isaias (or, as governor Henry McMaster called it, Hurricane “Icy Isis”). Other recent close calls included Hurricane Dorian in 2019 and Hurricane Irene in 2011.

Ian was the last hurricane to strike the Palmetto State – making landfall just south of Georgetown as a category one storm on September 30, 2022.

While Idalia’s impacts in South Carolina will no doubt be significantly less severe than they are in Florida, this is a good time to visit the S.C. Emergency Management Division (SCEMD) website – and follow the agency on Twitter (or ‘X’ as it is now called). Also, be sure to bookmark the NHC, Weather Underground, Track The Tropics, and the Boat U.S. hurricane tracking and resource center.

Finally, be sure to download your copy of the 2023 Hurricane Guide (.pdf), sponsored by Dominion Energy and AARP.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and seven children.

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