New Hampshire Poll: Donald Trump’s Lead Slips

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Former U.S. president Donald Trump has seen his lead in early-voting New Hampshire narrow – although he continues to enjoy a double-digit edge over his nearest challenger, Florida governor Ron DeSantis.

Trump is backed by 37 percent of respondents in the latest “Granite State Poll,” released by the University of New Hampshire (UNH)’s survey center. That’s five percentage points below Trump’s position in the last UNH poll – which was released back in April. It’s also ten percentage points lower than Trump’s standing in a Saint Anselm College survey (.pdf) released last month.

Meanwhile, Trump’s 14-percentage point edge over DeSantis – who was backed by 23 percent of respondents in the poll – is the narrowest margin recorded in this “First in the Nation” primary since March. By contrast, Trump led DeSantis by 28 percentage points in the Saint Anselm poll.

The good news for Trump? In addition to being in the lead, his voters are dialed in.

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“Trump supporters are far more likely than DeSantis voters to say they have made up their mind,” the pollsters noted.

Indeed, a whopping 76 percent of Trump backers said they had “definitely decided” to support the 45th president compared to just 14 percent who had settled on DeSantis as their choice.

Trailing Trump and DeSantis in the Granite State is South Carolina’s own Tim Scott, who is currently backed by eight percent of the GOP electorate. That is Scott’s best showing in any New Hampshire poll, and shows he is clearly the candidate on the move in this race.

Behind Scott, surprisingly, are two new entrants into the race – former New Jersey governor Chris Christie (6 percent) and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum (6 percent). Trailing them are Ohio entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (5 percent), former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley (5 percent), former vice president Mike Pence (1 percent) and former congressman/ CIA agent Will Hurd (1 percent).

None of the other candidates managed to tally so much as percentage point of support in the survey.

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Also of interest? Granite State voters second choice for the nomination. When asked this question, 18 percent cited DeSantis and 18 percent also cited Ramaswamy – while 12 percent said Scott, 11 percent said Pence and 10 percent said Trump.

Haley? Only three percent tapped her as their second choice.

The new UNH poll was conducted between July 13-17, 2023 and surveyed 898 likely 2024 Republican primary voters – with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent. It was released on the same day Trump announced he had received a target letter from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) in connection with its ongoing investigation into the rioting at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021 – meaning it will be interesting to track these results as Trump’s legal entanglements appear to be escalating.

New Hampshire has not set its 2024 primary date, however it is widely expected to fall on January 23, 2024 – in accordance with a state law protecting its place on the primary calendar after Iowa, which is slated to hold its caucus on January 15, 2024.

New Hampshire hasn’t always held a favorable few of its fellow early-state voters.

“The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents,” former Granite State governor John H. Sununu once said.

Of course, “First in the South” voters know which state most reliably chooses the GOP nominee. Since 1980, only once (2012) has the winner of the Palmetto State’s presidential preference primary not gone on to capture the Republican nomination.

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THE POLL …

(Via: University of New Hampshire Survey Center)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and seven children.

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