Courting Constituencies: Is Joe Biden Losing Millennials?

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Like many free thinking Americans, I continue to hope the 2024 general election will offer choices beyond incumbent president Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump. As of right now, though, these candidates – who ran against each other in 2020 – remain the runaway frontrunners for the nominations of America’s two major political parties.

A lot can change between now and February (when the first primary votes are cast), but a rematch between Biden and Trump is shaping up as the most likely scenario next fall. And for those of you keeping score at home, Trump is leading Biden by 0.6 percent in such a hypothetical – according to the latest aggregate national polling from RealClearPolitics.

National numbers certainly matter, but the outcome of any presidential race will likely boil down to a dozen or so swing states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin. And while it’s way too early to start doing electoral math, it is worth considering the constituencies that will matter – and where they are most likely to fall.

The biggest key constituency? Independents. According to Gallup, 44 percent of Americans defined themselves as independents last month – down from a record 49 percent in March. Conversely, only 27 percent identified as Democrats and 25 percent identified as Republicans.

I’ve been saying for years the path to the White House was wide open for a credible centrist … I (and others) just keep waiting for someone to take that road less traveled.

In the meantime, both major parties – and the candidates who presume to lead them – are taking inventory of the American electorate and the coalitions needed to sway swing states their way. Last month, I penned a column on U.S. congresswoman Nancy Mace – who is reportedly being eyed by Trump as a possible vice presidential prospect. My focus on Mace was based on her performance in the 2022 election cycle – particularly her performance in the deep purple suburbs of Charleston County.

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Mace cleaned up with independents – including women and suburbanites – during the last election cycle. Those are coveted constituencies, people, and her performance in traditionally Democratic precincts has reportedly caught the eye of Trump’s advisors.

While the mad rush to court the middle ramps up on both sides, Biden got some bad news regarding one of his core 2020 constituencies: Millennials. According to the June 2023 Economist-YouGov survey (.pdf), Biden is actually trailing Trump (albeit narrowly) among 30-44-year-olds – 40 percent to 39 percent.

Why does that number matter? Because in October 2020 – the final survey before the last election – Biden bested Trump in this age cohort by a staggering 54 percent to 33 percent, according to Economist-YouGov data (.pdf).

That is a staggering 22-point swing … and marks the latest evidence of the extent to which Biden’s bid for a second term is in trouble.

“Those are Millennials, who are now fully integrated into the U.S. labor force and many are getting married and having kids,” Robert Romano noted for Daily Torch. “They started paying taxes years ago.”

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“Given that partisan attitudes have remained roughly the same — Democrats still support Biden and Republicans still support Trump — the greatest shift for the moment appears to be among younger independents, or just independents in general,” Romano added. “If demographics are destiny, then an aging population may be an emerging strength for Republicans in elections going forward, if indeed shifts in attitudes come with age. But swings among independents can be deceptive that way, and could just as easily signal an unpopular incumbent, opening the potential for Democrats to later win back wayward Millennials.”

According to the prognosticators at FiveThirtyEight, an estimated 40.5 percent of voters approve of Biden’s performance in office compared to 54.2 percent who disapprove. That’s a gap of 13.7 percent – which is worse than the 11 percent gap recorded when Biden announced his candidacy back in April.

Oh, and Biden has an increasingly viable challenger on the Democratic side … despite the best efforts of the government-social censorship complex.

Democrats kick off their primary process in South Carolina on February 3, 2024 – followed by New Hampshire and Nevada (February 6, 2024), Georgia (February 13, 2024) and Michigan (February 27, 2024). Biden enjoys a big edge in the ‘First in the Nation’ Palmetto State – which is probably why he bumped it up in the calendar this cycle.

Republicans first face voters in the Iowa Caucus on February 5, 2024. New Hampshire comes eight days later (February 13, 2024) followed by South Carolina and Nevada on February 24, 2024.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR …

Will Folks is the founding editor of the news outlet you are currently reading. Prior to founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands region of the state with his wife and seven children.

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