He is the most controversial pollster in America right now – but he is also one of the only pollsters who got it right in 2016. His name is Robert Cahaly of the Atlanta, Georgia-based Trafalgar Group, and his projections of a competitive 2020 election between U.S. president Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden have officially sent the far left into orbit.
As we noted in a recent swing state preview, the latest “consensus” electoral map over at the website 270toWin gives Trump absolutely no chance of winning reelection.
Like … zero.
And anything countering this narrative is, well … triggering.
Meanwhile, Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight gives Trump only a 10 percent chance of winning, but as we approach election day Silver seems to be hedging a little bit.
And what about Cahaly? The consultant known in our home state of South Carolina as “The Oracle” (and with good reason) keeps cranking out his surveys – which, if accurate, would position Trump exceedingly well to pull off a second consecutive odds-defying upset.
Let’s take a look at some of those swing state surveys, shall we?
In Pennsylvania – a state Biden desperately needs to carry – the latest Trafalgar poll has Trump drawing 47.8 percent of the vote compared to 45.9 percent for Biden. Libertarian Jo Jorgensen is backed by 1.4 percent of respondents while another 1.2 percent say they are voting for someone else. That leaves 3.7 percent undecided.
This poll was conducted on October 30-31, 2020 and has a margin of error of 2.93 percent.
Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes. Trump won them by a razor thin 0.7 percent margin in 2016 – or less than half his current 1.9 percent edge, according to the Trafalgar poll. Biden heads into election day leading Trump by 2.9 percent in Pennsylvania according to the RealClearPolitics average (which includes the Trafalgar data).
Of interest? One other poll (.pdf) taken on November 1-2, 2020 by researches at Susquehanna Polling – a Harrisburg, Pennsylvania-based firm – also showed Trump narrowly ahead of Biden in the Keystone State.
In Michigan – another critical state for both candidates – the latest Trafalgar survey has Trump drawing 48.3 percent of the vote compared to 45.8 percent for Biden, a spread of 2.5 percent for the incumbent. Jorgensen is getting 1.7 percent in the Great Lakes State while another 1.3 percent say they will vote for someone else and 3 percent are undecided.
This poll was also conducted on October 30-31, 2020 and has a margin of error of 2.97 percent.
Michigan has 16 electoral votes, which Trump won by 0.3 percent in 2016. The current RealClearPolitics average for the state – which includes the Trafalgar data – has Biden ahead of Trump by 5.1 percent.
As was the case in 2016, Trafalgar is the only survey showing Trump with a lead over Biden in Michigan.
In North Carolina, the newest Trafalgar survey – taken between October 27-29, 2020 – puts Trump at 48.6 percent and Biden at 46.5 percent. Jorgensen is getting 2.6 percent in that survey while 1.4 percent say they will vote for someone else. Just 1 percent of Tar Heel State voters are undecided.
That survey has a margin of error of 2.9 percent – and is one of several polls showing Trump ahead the state. However, Cahaly’s projected victory margin for Trump in North Carolina is four times bigger than the 0.5 percent edge the incumbent is getting according to RealClearPolitics current survey average.
In Florida, Trafalgar’s most recent survey was conducted between October 25-28, 2020 and showed Trump drawing 49.6 percent of the vote compared to Biden’s 46.9 percent – an even 3 percent edge for the incumbent. Jorgensen is drawing 1.5 percent in Florida while 1.4 percent say they will vote for somewhere else. The undecided vote in the Sunshine State? It is only 0.7 percent –
Certainly there are other states we will be watching closely tomorrow as returns (hopefully) begin to come in … but from where we sit Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and North Carolina are the states that will decide this election.
-FITSNews
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