Welcome (back) to #FITSPicks! It’s championship week, the final round of games before the four finalists are named for the 2017 College Football Playoff (CFP).
Defending national champion Clemson finds itself back on top of the CFP rankings heading into the conference championships – and a win over Miami in the ACC title game will guarantee the Tigers a spot in the four-team playoff field.
Beyond that, nothing’s really written in stone …
For those of you new to our format, each weekend our experts have been offering up their predictions for both of the Palmetto State’s major college in-state matchups as well as three of the best Top 25 tilts on tap. They’re graded in two areas: Whether they correctly pick the winner of each game, and whether they win against the spread.
Here’s how they’ve fared so far …
This week we’re picking the five major conference championship games – and adding a new wrinkle.
In addition to predicting the outcome of the conference championships, we’ve asked our panel to submit their picks for the CFP playoff (i.e. which four teams they believe will be selected when the dust settles from this weekend’s excitement).
For each team they correctly place in the playoffs, we’ll be adding a “win” to their records (straight-up and against the spread).
Pee Dee soothsayer Brant Branham continues to lead our overall standings, and had another solid showing with the rivalry games – posting a 4-0 overall mark while going 3-1 against the spread.
Liz Gunn and Woody Whitehurst are currently jockeying for second place in the standings, while our founding editor Will Folks continues to bring up the rear.
To the picks!
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SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
#2 AUBURN (10-2) VS. #6 GEORGIA (11-1)
(Via DeathValleyVoice)
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA – 4:00 p.m. EST – CBS
Oddshark Spread Consensus: GEORGIA -1.5
ESPN Matchup Predictor: AUBURN 50.4 percent
THE PICKS …
BRANT BRANHAM (42-13, 30-24-1 ATS) – AUBURN 27 GEORGIA 20
Tigers vs Dawgs round two. Georgia was manhandled when these two played on the Plains in November. I’m sure the Bulldogs want revenge, but that easier said than done.
Auburn is playing as good as any team in the country right now, and are loaded with confidence. Couple that with a 100-year hatred for Georgia, and I think beating Auburn is a bridge too far for the Bulldogs.
Both teams have strong running games, but OB Jarrett Stidham outplayed Georgia freshman signal caller Jake Fromm in the last game and I think he does it again.
I picked Georgia to win last time – fool me once shame you fool me twice shame on me. I’ll take Auburn to win and make the final four.
LIZ REARDON (30-15, 21-23 ATS) – AUBURN 28 GEORGIA 23
I honestly don’t care who wins this game. South Carolina lost to UGA, so it makes sense that I would want them to win. And Clemson beat Auburn so it would hurt them for Auburn to lose. With that being said, Auburn winning is probably Alabama’s only shot at getting in the playoffs (according to pundits – personally, I think Alabama should get in regardless). This one is a conundrum – but in reality I do think Auburn will beat Georgia again. And I think they’ll cover the spread.
WOODY WHITEHURST (33-17, 25-24-1 ATS) – AUBURN 27 GEORIGA 10
A couple of storylines coming into this game really intrigue me. The first is the health and availability of Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson and the second is the impact of playing such a physical and emotionally draining rivalry game will have on Auburn. If Johnson is out or severely limited, I’m not sure Auburn can be nearly as explosive. For Georgia, the challenge is trying to correct the problems and develop a plan that doesn’t result in the type of beating they received a few weeks ago. Feels like the Tigers win this game again, but I’m not as confident as I was a few days ago.
WILL FOLKS (32-23, 25-30 ATS) – AUBURN 29 GEORGIA 20
I believe the winner of this game is in the CFP and the loser is out. So, no pressure. Auburn is super-hot right now, although as Woody noted a healthy Kerryon Johnson is a key to them staying that way. Johnson got limited reps in practice this week, and is officially listed as a game-time decision. That’s good enough for me. Auburn wins, covers and becomes the first two-loss team in CFP history.
FINAL SCORE: GEORGIA 28 AUBURN 7
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ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
#1 CLEMSON (11-1) VS. #7 MIAMI (10-1)
(Via: iStock)
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte N.C. – 8:00 p.m. EST – ABC
Oddshark Spread Consensus: Clemson -10
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Clemson 78.4 percent
THE PICKS …
BRANT BRANHAM (42-13, 30-24-1 ATS) – CLEMSON 34 MIAMI 20
Head Coach Mark Richt and The U have had a resurgent season, and being surrounded by recruiting grounds as fertile as those apparently around Casa de Folks (6 kids dude, what can I say?) The U may be in the midst of returning to their glory days of the ’80’s and ’90’s. By the way readers the lovely Katrina Folks, Lady of the Valley (and wife of this news site’s editor), has a TV for the bedroom on her Christmas wish list (preferably one with porn block). She’s gotta find some way to distract Will.
But back to football, though. Miami is talented on both sides of the ball. The offense is well balanced, running and throwing effectively and the defense runs all over field creating turnovers in bunches.
The Tigers are ranked #1 for a reason. They are talented, deep, and experienced. Clemson plays with a “been there done that” type confidence that has shown in big game after big game.
I think overall Clemson is the best team here, and they seem to be more healthy than the Caines. Look for the Tigers to come out hungry for a chance to defend their national title. I’ll take Clemson to win and cover.
LIZ REARDON (30-15, 21-23 ATS) – MIAMI 24 CLEMSON 23
Obviously I want Miami to win this game. I want it more than anything. Can they do it? Yes. Will they? Maybe. If they play their best – it’s a strong possibility. If their defense looks like it did against Pitt, then they’re in trouble. It pains me to say this but yes, Clemson is a very good football team. But who have they beaten? Auburn in the first game of the season without their star running back? Meh. They lost to Syracuse. A 4-8 team! With all that said, I’m betting my heart today and picking Miami with the huge upset.
WOODY WHITEHURST (33-17, 25-24-1 ATS) – CLEMSON 30 MIAMI 17
Miami feels like a team that’s finally showing wear and tear of a long season. They looked a bit worn down against Pitt and the loss of their starting TE and leading WR this week will have a real impact on this game. Meanwhile Clemson, on the heels of a scrimmage against their in- state rival, looks to be pretty healthy and maybe even rounding into championship form. If they manage to hold onto the ball and keep the turnover chain in the jewelry box, the Tigers should win.
WILL FOLKS (32-23, 25-30 ATS) – CLEMSON 38 MIAMI 13
I think Clemson coasts in this game. Its defense is healthy, deep and dominating – and with the exception of Miami’s big win over Notre Dame I just haven’t seen anything from the Canes that leads me to believe they can hang with the Tigers. Clemson rolls and becomes only the second team to appear in the CFP three times in a row.
FINAL SCORE: CLEMSON 38 MIAMI 3
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BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP
#8 OHIO STATE (10-2) VS. #4 WISCONSIN (12-0)
(Via: Talking10)
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN – 8:00 p.m. EST – FOX
Oddshark Spread Consensus: Ohio State -3.5
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Ohio State 64.8 percent
THE PICKS …
BRANT BRANHAM (42-13, 30-24-1 ATS) – WISCONSIN 26 OHIO STATE 24
Okay Badgers it’s time to put up or shut up. Wisconsin has gotten little respect nationally this year, playing in the woefully weak Big 10 West will do that to you. But they can have a spot in the final four with a win in Indy on Saturday. (They actually may be better than the team that calls Lucas Oil Stadium home, sorry about that Will, but I have to take my shots when I can my man).
The media loved Buckeyes are talented and well coached by Urban Meyer. They can score and are strong on D.
The Badgers need to control the ball and limit possessions. They can do that with their run game and physical O-line.
The only Big 10 team I like to follow is Michigan, and I ain’t sold on Harbaugh, but I gotta pick this one.
Wisconsin please put us out of the misery of possibly putting OSU back in the playoff. I’ll take the Badgers in an upset, just for that reason alone. Cue the fight song.
On Wisconsin, On Wisconsin, plunge right through that line.
Run the ball clear down the field, a touchdown sure this time.
Damn that song sucks.
LIZ REARDON (30-15, 21-23 ATS) – WISCONSIN 28 OHIO STATE 27
Once again, an all heart pick here. I despise Ohio State. Who doesn’t? And I feel like Wisconsin has been disrespected by the committee this year. They deserve a playoff spot, and they need to win to secure it. I’m cheering hard for the Badgers to pull off the upset and ruin the playoff committee’s day by putting a nail in the Buckeye’s coffin.
WOODY WHITEHURST (33-17, 25-24-1 ATS) – OHIO STATE 21 WISCONSIN 17
This game is confusing as hell to me. JT Barrett had surgery this week, but will be available Saturday? That sounds really odd to me. I don’t think I’ve watched a single down of Wisconsin football this year, but I assume they run the ball well and play competent defense. This feels like a 4th quarter game, but I’m basically just closing my eyes and pointing at numbers.
WILL FOLKS (32-23, 25-30 ATS) – OHIO STATE 31 WISCONSIN 22
I’m just glad there’s finally going to be some good football played at Lucas Oil Stadium this season. My beloved Colts have been stinking up the joint on Sundays, or at least that’s what I’m told by those who aren’t boycotting the National Football League this season. As for this game, as much as I hate to pick Ohio State – they’re simply the better team on both sides of the football. I’ve been burned a couple of times going against them this season and I’m not going to make the same mistake again – especially on the championship stage. Will a win be enough to get Ohio State in the CFP? No, but it would certainly make things interesting.
FINAL SCORE: OHIO STATE 27 WISCONSIN 21
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BIG XII CHAMPIONSHIP
#3 OKLAHOMA (11-1) VS. #11 TCU (10-2)
(Via: HDNux)
AT&T Stadium, – 12:30 p.m. EST – FOX
Oddshark Spread Consensus: Oklahoma -7
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Oklahoma 59.8
THE PICKS …
BRANT BRANHAM (42-13, 30-24-1 ATS) – OKLAHOMA 41 TCU 31
There’s bad blood in this game left over from the previous game in Norman, won by the Sooners.
Oklahoma has the Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield at QB and a duel threat RB Rodney Anderson. All Anderson did last time against the Frogs was run for 151 yards and add 139 in receiving while scoring 4 TD’s.
For TCU to have a chance to pull off an upset here QB Kenny Hill has to play better than his 13-28 and 270 yard performance in the loss at Norman.
Win or lose TCU won’t make the final four, but it would be so Big 12-like of them to win and knock the Sooners out. I don’t see that happening, though. I’ll take the Oakies to win and cover.
LIZ REARDON (30-15, 21-23 ATS) – OKLAHOMA 35 TCU 24
They say it’s hard to beat a team twice in the same season BUT, much like with Georgia and Auburn -when it’s a solid beat down – I don’t know if that still rings true. The last time these two teams met, the Sooners put the smack down on the Horned Frogs. I don’t think it’s going to be that much closer this go-round. Oklahoma wins and covers.
WOODY WHITEHURST (33-17, 25-24-1 ATS) – OKLAHOMA 38 TCU 17
Stupid Baker Mayfield and stupid Oklahoma will win this game by 20-27 points.
WILL FOLKS (32-23, 25-30 ATS) – OKLAHOMA 45 TCU 34
I desperately want to pick TCU here because I’d love to watch Baker Mayfield get humbled in his final game before the Heisman Trophy is presented. Mayfield’s antics earlier this year against Kansas were just vile. Even more disgusting has been how the national sports media has given him a hall pass for his bad behavior – totally ignoring the fact that the Heisman Trophy is supposed to be awarded based on excellence AND integrity. Mayfield’s certainly a gifted signal-caller, but he has some serious character issues to deal with before he gets an award for “integrity.” And yes, I think I’ve officially become my father.
FINAL SCORE: OKLAHOMA 41 TCU 17
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PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP
#12 STANFORD (9-3) VS. #10 SOUTHERN CAL (10-2)
(Via: SportsFansJournal)
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara CA – 8:00 p.m. EST (Friday) – ESPN
Oddshark Spread Consensus: Southern Cal -4
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Stanford 56.6 percent
THE PICKS …
BRANT BRANHAM (42-13, 30-24-1 ATS) – STANFORD 31 SOUTHERN CAL 30
This one pairs off my two favorite PAC 12 teams. They’ve been playing since 1905. They know each other well, and don’t like each other much either. So don’t count on any Trojan Horse tricks here.
A key matchup in this game is the talented USC receivers going up against a stingy Cardinal secondary that has 16 picks this season.
Both teams have good running backs. Roland James leads the Trojans with 1,346 yards and 16 TD’s. Stanford counters with Bryce Love who has put up Heisman like numbers with 2,027 yards and 19 TD’s. Bryce is the better back and will give the Men of Troy D all they want.
At QB give USC the advantage. Sam Darnolds’ numbers aren’t as good as last year, but he’s still damn good, and has played better later in the season. K.J. Costello is no Darnold, but he ain’t bad, and Stanford has certainly played better since he took over under center.
USC won the game in September 42-24, but that seems like forever ago. I’ll take the Cardinal in an upset. Cue Lowell George and Little Feat “Down on the Farm.”
LIZ REARDON (30-15, 21-23 ATS) – STANFORD 30 SOUTHERN CAL 28
I have a lot of disdain for USC. First of all, the name. We had it first. That’s. Fact. Second of all -the cheating. And third, Lane Kiffin. He’s not there anymore, but his stench remains. I’m calling the upset -Stanford in a close one!
WOODY WHITEHURST (33-17, 25-24-1 ATS) – STANFORD 28 SOUTHERN CAL 24
Since I try not to stay up super late, I really haven’t watched much of either of these teams. USC (the real one) is very talented and should’ve had a much better season. If only their odd looking QB had stopped giving away the ball. On the other side, Stanford looked like they’d really struggle this season and while they haven’t set the world on fire, they found a way to grind out enough wins to save the year.
WILL FOLKS (32-23, 25-30 ATS) – SOUTHERN CAL 33 STANFORD 28
Why not go out with a contrarian pick? After all, going against the grain of my fellow panelists is one of the reasons I’m in last place in the standings – and likely to get booted from this august fraternity of prognosticators next year. Channeling Nixon, “you won’t have Sic Willie to kick around anymore.” In all seriousness, though, the “other USC” opened a can of whoop ass on Stanford the last time these two teams played and I just think they match up well against the Cardinal.
FINAL SCORE: SOUTHERN CAL 31 STANFORD 28
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BONUS PICKS: CFP PREDICTIONS
BRANT: 1. CLEMSON, 2. AUBURN, 3. OKLAHOMA, 4. WISCONSIN
LIZ: 1. OKLAHOMA, 2. WISCONSIN, 3. AUBURN, 4. MIAMI
WOODY: 1. CLEMSON 2. OKLAHOMA. 3. AUBURN 4. ALABAMA
WILL: 1. CLEMSON 2. AUBURN 3. OKLAHOMA 4. ALABAMA
FINAL: 1. CLEMSON 2. OKLAHOMA 3. GEORGIA 4. ALABAMA
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