COULD A COUNTY CHAIRMAN’S RACE IMPACT THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Pennsylvania will be ground zero in the battle for the White House in 2016. Its twenty electoral votes are potentially decisive – and potentially winnable for the GOP, which saw a 620,478-vote deficit in 2008 trimmed to a 309,840-vote deficit in 2012.
If that keeps up …
Montgomery County, located outside of Philadelphia, is one of the most heavily populated counties in the state. It has recently given way to a Democratic majority – but only because the local “Republican” party has fallen apart.
Sources tell us if the Montgomery GOP can get its act together, coalesce around a winning candidate and run an efficient voter turnout operation next November – “Republicans” can win the Keystone State for the first time since 1988 and position themselves to win the presidency.
The current Montgomery chairman, State Rep. Mike Vereb, has recently stepped down after a disgraceful and embarrassing November general election which saw almost every Republican in the county defeated. The first test as to whether the Republicans can reorganize and regroup in Montgomery County will come on December 15 – when they gather to pick a new county chairman.
As it stands now, the race boils down to a battle between two candidates. The first is Tom Ellis, a former county commissioner with a less-than-flattering Google search. Ellis is considered by many to be divisive, destructive and a bully.
“His tactics for rounding up committee people to vote for him have included threats, strong-arm tactics, and intimidation,” a source familiar with the race told us. “If he’s elected it’s hard to see how this party will be unified come next November.”
The other candidate, Bill Donnell, hails from Hatboro. He has wide-ranging support from area leaders and is seen as a unifier. In fact he has publicly stated his reason for running is to unify the party, fill out the last two years of Vereb’s term and then step down.
Hmmmm …
Our founding editor Will Folks clearly eschews GOP politics, but having spent considerable time in this particular neck of the woods (he is a 1993 graduate of The Hill School in nearby Pottstown, Pennsylvania) he’s obviously still got sources there. Who are plugged into the local political scene. And given how this local election could conceivably impact the national race, well … we felt it was interesting to consider.
Swing states fascinate us … and we hope to delve deeper into their intricacies as 2016 approaches.
7 comments
And when pigs fly………….
PA is no longer a swing state. Just ask RIck Santorum.
Montgomery use to be solidly Republican, and even then the state as a whole was a toss-up. It is very purple these days.
PA, a home of extreme gerrymandering.
In the 2012 US House races, Dems won 50.5% of votes cast and 28% of the seats.
GOP won 49.9% of the votes cast and 72% of the seats.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/opinion/sunday/let-math-save-our-democracy.html
I have a dream…that one day Americans of ALL parties – not just is a few states here and there – will rise up and create non-partisan, non-legislative independent redistricting commissions that create districts that give all voters a fair and decent chance of actual representation…and, inspire them to leave the house and actually vote.
We can say we believe in representative democracy and majority rule all we want, but until that happens, we will just be talking.
“Sources tell us if the Montgomery GOP can get its act together, coalesce around a winning candidate and run an efficient voter turnout operation next November – “Republicans” can win the Keystone State for the first time since 1988 and position themselves to win the presidency.”
Sounds like plans for a Rube Goldberg Machine.
Google is not good to Ellis. “In a statement released to The Times Herald, the 30-year-old employee accuses Ellis of threatening her county job, and refers to an incident at another workplace that allegedly involved unwanted physical contact.”
If Montgomery County Republicans can turn out the Vote, they don’t even need to win, PA has a very good chance of going Red.
Pennsylvania is not expected to be decisive or a swing state, much less ground zero, in 2016.
Analysts already conclude that only the 2016 party winner of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire (with 86 electoral votes among them) is not a foregone conclusion. So, if the National Popular Vote bill is not in effect, less than a handful of unrepresentative states will continue to dominate and determine the presidential general election.
The indefensible reality is that more than 99% of presidential campaign attention (ad spending and visits) was invested on voters in just the only ten competitive states in
2012.
Two-thirds (176 of 253) of the general-election campaign events, and a similar fraction of campaign expenditures, were in just four states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa).
A survey of Pennsylvania voters showed 78% overall support for a national popular vote for President.
Most Americans don’t ultimately care whether their presidential candidate wins or loses in a state . . . they care whether he/she wins the White House. Voters want to know, that even if they were on the losing side, their vote actually was equally counted and mattered to their candidate. Most Americans think it is wrong that the candidate with the most popular votes can lose. We don’t allow this in any other election in our representative republic.
Presidential elections don’t have to continue to be about a narrowly focused barrage of attention by the media, candidates, pollsters, strategists, organizers, and ads in the handful of unrepresentative swing states that dominate and determine the general election, while most of the country is politically irrelevant.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes. There would no longer be a handful of ‘battleground’ states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in 80%+ of the states that have just been ‘spectators’ and ignored after the conventions.
The National Popular Vote bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes—270 of 538.
All of the presidential electors from the enacting states will be supporters of the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC)—thereby guaranteeing that candidate with an Electoral College majority.
The bill has passed 33 state legislative chambers in 22 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 250 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 11 jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
NationalPopularVote
What did Harrison Ford say about Donald Trump’s comments on “Air Force One”? It’s only a movie!! Relax MHP………calm……..peaceful……..shhh