HOW “DOUBLE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT” WILL FIX EVERYTHING!
|| By FITSNEWS || In January the breathless ones told us the U.S. economy was going to be all “rainbows and unicorns” this year. At the time, we pointed out such predictions were overly optimistic … and we were right (still are).
But bad numbers can’t be … they just can’t. Which is why our government is now doing its best to artificially inflate things via a “double seasonal adjustment.” What’s that, you ask? Well, typically seasonal adjustments are used to smooth out economic data so that seasonal surges – or retreats – don’t offer distorted pictures of growth.
“Business and consumers behave differently in December than they do in July,” economist Peter Schiff put it this week.
But when does legitimate “seasonal adjustment” become artificial inflation?
Right about NOW, according to Schiff …
“Just as the steady torrent of awful economic data, which began in the First Quarter and continued well into April and May, had forced many market analysts to grudgingly concede that 2015 would not see the robust economic growth that most had expected, the statisticians arrived on the scene like a cavalry charge and routed the forces of pessimism with a wave of their spreadsheets,” Schiff wrote.
He’s right …
Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) – part of the Commerce Department – published a blog post indicating areas of “residual seasonality,” which Schiff defined for the agency as “areas that we think should be higher.” Then the San Francisco Federal Reserve published a report (.pdf here) in which it asserted “the anomalous pattern of generally weak first-quarter growth suggests that the BEA’s estimate of GDP growth for the first three months of 2015 may understate the true strength of the economy.”
Mmm-hmmm.
In fact according to the San Francisco Fed, the economy likely grew by 1.8 percent in the first quarter – not the 0.2 percent reported. Obviously that’s still a terrible print in light of all deficit spending and money-printing the federal government has undertaken in an effort to “stimulate” growth of late, but it is closer to the “rainbows and unicorns” predictions.
It’s also more confusing, which according to Schiff is the whole point (i.e. “we prefer the ability to manipulate figures rather than allowing the figures to tell us things that we don’t want to hear”).
None of the manipulation addresses the real problem, though …
“The real disconnect lies in the failure of the economy to grow, as most people assumed that it would, after the Fed’s quantitative easing and zero interest rates had supposedly worked their magic,” Schiff concluded. “But as I have said many times before, these policies act more as economic depressants than they do as stimulants. As long as these monetary policies persist, our economy will never return to the growth rates that would be considered healthy.”
Once again, he’s right …
As we’ve noted repeatedly, the U.S. economy hasn’t grown at an annual rate of three percent or higher in ten years. It hasn’t grown at a rate of four percent or higher in fifteen years. And it hasn’t grown at a rate of five percent or higher in thirty years. By contrast, growth exceeded five percent in twelve out of thirty years from 1950-1980. And it exceeded four percent in seventeen out of those thirty years.
The answer is simple: America needs to grow the economy, not government. It needs to start letting consumers do the stimulating, instead of pumping trillions of dollars we don’t have into wealth redistribution, crony capitalism, welfare statism, global interventionism and socialized medicine.
Then we will see real growth … the kind that doesn’t require any artificial stimulation.
42 comments
ahhhhhhhhhhhhh! RUN! RUN! (in circles) we’re all *doomed*… *doomed* vote libertarian, or we’re all ‘fo sure *doomed*
Another “we’re all going to die!!” piece from Fits.
I’m sure he’d be happy if it happened.
Hi, Bible Thumper.
say what?
Its not my fault Fits is clinically depressed–and hopes he brigs everyone else down with him.
??? $73.. per-hr @mi23//
???http://WorldStarHipHopDesign.org/Pro/star…
idiot.
Actually I would prefer a real, true, middle of the road democrat to more than a couple of what the republicrats are offering this go around.
Can you spare a spoonful of sugar for my tea?
So lets return taxes to where they were from 1950 to 1980. I can agree with that. The golden age of the middle class. When trickle down was still Voodoo Economics.
Yay! 90% top rates and the lowest at 20%.
Sounds like a great idea…to completely kill our economy.
Of course! … That’s the way Brother Jimmy planned it!
Of course, of course … Of course that would mean that your children and grandchildren never, ever will strive to be better than the poorest, based government employee.
And forget about climbing the status rungs within “the party”. Those cat-bird seats are already taken by the “progressives” and their “friends” and inheritors.
Open those FEMA camps now! Let the purges begin!
90% no, but 50% would be good. 35% capital gains tax would be greatly appreciated too.
Do you really believe that the government knows how to spend your money better than you do?
I still remember the first time I built a hydroelectric dam.
Yeah..here in the southeast we’re getting a majority of our electricity from those because they are so efficient.
If you don’t feel you are paying enough taxes, feel free to give some more money to the IRS. I’m sure they’ll take it if you tell them you want to make a donation.
Welcome to civilization.
Did it kill our economy from 1950 to 1980? Didn’t think so. I think the economy would boom. We would have the money necessary to repair our infrastructure, to shore up Social Security and Medicare, and pay off the debt.
Yeah, right. All you gotta do is raise taxes. No way Congress would EVER increase spending with more money coming into the coffers. A Rainbow in every pot and a Unicorn in every garage!
Yeah right all we have to do is cut taxes on rich people and we will all be rich. Under the magical Republican formula the more you cut taxes on the wealthy the more money you have and if you eliminate taxes you have infinite money.
As is so typical of Republicans tax cuts are never enough. Even though taxes on the rich are at a 50 year low, its not enough. We need to cut benefits of the middle class so we can cut the taxes of the rich even more and spend more on defense and profit for defense contractors..
If increased spending is concern elect people who will raise taxes to pay for what we need and not unnecessarily increase spending. You know the way it worked before Reaganomics and trickle down.
Communist!
Now that’s funny!
Koch sucker
Well, one can see you didn’t pay much attention back then.
Reminder: It was a time of “the Carter Recession”, slump-flation, and increasing taxes apparently without end. It was a time when all democrats were tarred with the brush “tax and spend” liberals. It was a time when the wage gap was even deeper and wider than now because the “1%” was only 0.1%. It was a time of 50 cent gasoline, 79 cent hamburgers and $5 movie tickets! … and one had to go on blended knee to the bank to put 20% down on a 12% mortgage.
So …. …. What is it that you really want? “The Road To Serfdom” and one world Gruberment?
As typical of Republicans you have your own version of history where you blame everyone but Republicans. Carter was only President for four years. He was elected president in 1976, taking over government in 1977.
Inflation during 1974 under Nixon and Ford hit 11%. In only one year of the Carter administration did inflation exceed that level. That was 1980.
I might also note Carter was a major job creator. More net jobs were created during in the four years of the Carter Administration than in the combined Presidencies of Bush 1 and Bush 2. Carter created more net jobs in four years than the Bushes did in twelve. In fact, more private sector jobs were created in the years 1977 and 1978 than in any year since. Also in spite of inflation, the Average American saw his inflation adjusted income increase during the Carter administration.
So for virtually all of the Carter Administration, the economy was humming. That in fact was why we had the inflation in the first place. And, in determining who was best for the average American, I am willing to put the Carter years up against the Bush years any day of the week.
Of course when you talk about the top 5% that is an entirely different picture. As one might expect their income and net worth exploded in the Reagan and Bush years.
Yeah Carter was a great president! Almost 8% unemployment, 12% interest rates, 14% inflation and pardoning of draft dodgers. Awesome times!
Whenever you have a term (stagflation) coined for the outcome of your economic policies, you know they suck ass.
One of the few presidents to ever try and give a pep talk to address a general “malaise” of the American public.
You may be able to revisions history Obama, but you’ll never be able to do that for do nothing Carter. The world thought less of him than they do Obama, if that is even possible (proved by the freeing of the Iranian hostages on Reagan’s first hour in office)
“No way Congress would EVER increase spending with more money coming into the coffers.”
They didn’t decrease spending with less money coming into the coffers. By your logic we need to pull back the tax cuts.
There can be only one sure way to avoid disaster. Wil – please join me and let’s liquidate all our assets and buy gold. As soon as you show me your $50K gold certificates purchased this week, I’ll follow suit.
Hey Rocky.For you…bye bye illegals!TODAY!
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/26/appeals-court-deals-blow-obama-amnesty/
ICE! ICE! Come deport fc, I think he came from Honduras!
I wish.I could get free housing,health insurance, drivers licence,not pay taxes and can file retroactively for the Earned Income Tax Credit.
Maybe you can do that all already?
Hey pogo! I heard great news about Ireland! Want to get hitched there?
Stop the gay jokes GT.I just told my daughters at the father/daughter dinner that I am transgender.
And they said, oh, just like Bruce Jenner and Grand Tango. You’re in good company Dad.
No, it just continues the injunction on the executive order. The administration can now go either directly to the SCOTUS or an appeal hearing. FC – just remember – pounding on Pedro didn’t do so well in 2012. Now you’re going to Pound on Columba Bush?
I’ll trade you a fourth ounce of gold for a potato. Come on man, that’s worth a lot more than one measly potato! You won’t sell me the vegetable?
*POW* *POW*
What? He violated my NAP!
If gold is so great, why would anyone ever trade worthless dollars for it?
That would be a grevious error. Never by paper gold. Make mine Solid Gold .9999 fine Canadian Maple Leafs please. (No taxes due upon sale.)
Another way to look at it is this: A bus is making it’s way across the Blue Ridge Parkway. It is loaded with passengers and there are two parties ( a hmm..drivers).
Both drivers (parties) want to control the bus and are engaged in an all out fight for control of the wheel. The passengers well-being ( economy, health and prosperity) be damned because those two drivers know what is best and until one of them gets control of that damn bus nothing else matters.
Meanwhile, several other buses (countries) are cruising along window shopping and cherry-picking and laughing all the way.
On a side note, the reason that the Chinese are buying up Myrtle Beach properties is because all those rednecks that vacation there are already accustomed to dealing with foreigners when renting rooms, etc. They pay, smile, get back in the car and cuss the Indian motel owners. Now they will cuss the Chinese. The only difference is that the Chinese are strategically positioning thousands of civilian employees along our coast. They will eventually convert the fertile Myrtle to a gambling mecca but the end run is to establish an army on the East coast to compliment the largest airstrip and container port that they currently own in the Bahamas.
If they attempted such a land grab in Wilmington, Charleston or Savannah it would draw way too much resistance. They can have Myrtle and it looks like by God they have gotten it.
One day a little Chinese general fucker will blow a whistle and every one of those little bastards will put on a uniform and appear out of nowhere.
I’ll play alog with your (chinese) tin foil hat game…
About 5 seconds after your scenario happened and the Chinese economy comes to crashing halt, who will prop it back up?
You are basically saying the equivalent of Toyota Financial shooting any customer that walks on a Toyota lot to buy a new Camry.
J Paul Getty once said “If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”
Are you really worried that the Chinese will take us out by buying up cheap hotels in Myrtle Beach? Holy crap…you have lost your damn mind.
fake edit: I think I just got trolled and fell for it.
I hope.
No. He is saying that Toyota Financial would shoot anyone walking on the lot to buy a Chevy.
It is quite a pipe dream, though … I’ll have some of what He is smoking, please.
Well maybe…but the American consumer is ultimately the one who pays it back, so they are essentially the one who would get taken over by the Chinese.
People, people…don’t get your economic news here for god’s sake.
Go and find out what the NYSE is doing and has been doing for the last few months.
Look at national labor statistics and unemployment numbers.
Look at currency exchange rates against other major countries.
Look at quarterly GDP growth
There are lots of separate indicators of economic health that are not tied to a political viewpoint. Unfortunately Fits is dead set on constant butthurt when it comes to the economy and there is some evidence to suggest that constant naysayers (even despite positive growth) have more of a drag on the economy that actual economics.