… WITH REASON
|| By FITSNEWS || Remember how “falling gas prices” were supposed to spark a renaissance in consumer spending in America this year? Well, that didn’t happen … not even a little bit (thanks, Obamacare).
What now? Well, with no surge in retail spending there’s been no real economic expansion or growth … and now that gas prices are going back up consumers are starting to freak out a bit. Or more accurately, freak out a lot.
According to the Thomson-Reuters University of Michigan (Go Blue!) survey of consumers, the nation’s index of consumer sentiment plunged from 95.9 in April to 88.6 in May. Analysts had expected the index to hold steady – making this the largest miss on record.
It’s also the largest month-to-month drop since December 2012.
Consumers were downbeat about their current situation, which fell from 107.0 to 99.8, as well as their “expectations” for the future – which saw a decline from 88.8 to 81.5.
“Confidence fell in early May as consumers became increasingly convinced that there would be no quick and robust rebound following the dismal (first) quarter,” the surveyors noted.
Ya don’t say …
As we’ve frequently noted consumer confidence can be a good indicator of consumer spending, which in turn can be a good indicator of employment and … in turn … incomes. Which of course leads back to confidence.
52 comments
State gas taxes going up. And now federal right behind that. People everywhere have had it with these public servants. They are nothing but a pack of organized criminal psychopaths in sheep clothing. Experts are saying a recession much worst than the “great recession” will start this year. Volvo could shelf its plans.
The increase in SC fuel costs could just about kill SCs chances of becoming a world class destination for manufacturing.
There is absolutely No Talk Of Raising Any Taxes In Texas.
My God! What a distortion of the facts. I’m no fan of Obama, but if you go to the “survey of consumers” link above and click the tables or charts tabs you will see that even though Consumer confidence is below levels of the previous months, the last seven months values are all above all previous values since July 2007.
Behavior is a difficult thing to measure, but I see some market recovery. I’m a consumer.
Last year was a good year. Not sure about this year yet, but were are not going back into recession.
According to all my data points we are not. Some markets are better than others, but I see nothing that leads me to believe we are moving into another recession.
There is much hype and scare around election time, the numbers are fudged, that unless you can hire an economist, difficult to determine.
I find I can look around and get the similar information. Housing market is bouncing back, at least in my area. Jobs are getting better, not what we want, but better than before. Food prices are still high, but shop around and they too are better than before.
When the fed starts talking about bumping interest rates higher, which I have heard a lot of talk about, that is an indication that consumer confidence is on the rise. Agree with what they do or not, it is a strong indicator.
GDP is not always a good measure. When energy prices fall, then many other prices fall and that shaves off from GDP gains. The producer price index shows a year to year decline of 1.3%. But most people are still better off. The energy sector is down, but let it cycle through the economy so that we no longer see the year to year declines and we will start to see gains.
Lest I speak off the cuff, let me go read my most recent financial analysis. I could save money talking to you Thumper. But let’s see what they have to say. I can only say so much without plagiarizing. Back soon.
The pessimists on U.S. growth, whether recession, earnings or a major slowdown are making a mountain out of a molehill.
Very few layoffs. Also unrealistic response to economic outcry in global economy trends. Global GDP recovered from darkest recession since ’30’s peaking out well over 5%. This is a quick recovery as one would expect after a deep recession.
Growth sinks when Europe made large policy blunders and emerging markets, similar to China, had to deal with inflation.
Late 2012 the global ship started to turn around. After bottoming, it has shifted back and forth narrowly and is close to uprighting the longer term average of 3.5%.
Global consumer and business confidence are as expected on long term average.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
The chart above best reflects my view on the economy. The bleeding has stopped. The recovery has begun, but there is a long way to go. The chart may never return to 63% because of aging Baby Boomers and medical advances that extend their lives, but there is room for a lot of improvement.
My data is based on BLS as well, I just didn’t include links. Too much time required for snapshot on a site.
But we are still left with massively increasing taxes, tithes and tributes to Obamanomics driven Gruberment.
Until that fiscally suicidal madness stops, the recovery will just limp along.
Obamacare is like sitting down to dinner and eating a horse.
Question is will it always be like that until we get rid of Obamacare or will we finally finish the horse and return to normal growth, loosing only the years of growth while we eating and digesting the horse. I suspect it is somewhere in between.
There is so much confidence out there … biz, high and low tech, services, bank even some parts of g’ment.
It’s about ready to bust out and go super expansive. …
The only thing holding it all back is this administration.
Even democrats can see this coming … … …
People need to see a change. Need to believe in someone. Looking for a charismatic leader. May the best man or woman win.
Change is good. A change of g’ment. A change in attitude. A change in the weather. A change in the business climate ….
Charismatic leader? How about a wimp with a good tax plan?
People are afraid of change, even when it is good.
Gains in consumer spending power because of lower energy costs will show up this summer … except in those regions that have increased taxes on energy prices.
Out here in Taxifornia, gasoline is again knocking at $4 buck per gallon … Because the “progressive” taxsuckers here have finally driven the Golden Calf, Chevron, away. Other businesses in Taxifornia are running for the hills, too.
BTW: surprise, surprise: there are several divisions of HP looking for warm weather vacation-land type places to move to … I told my friends there to take a closer look in your neck of the woods. Your welcome.
Thanks for your help. Fits is helping at this end with his “dumb as rocks”,”worst in the nation govm’t schools” articles.
Thanks Rocky.
????
Ask local economist Frank Hefner.
Why ask local, when I can hire a firm of local and non-local folks to do it for me at a better price?
A better price for an economist? How about the price of an interesting hard cover book? Hayek? Friedman? Laffer? Grant?
They don’t manage money. A book is a great starter.
I do Like Friedman’s pencil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s
Yes, every state that has cut taxes, yes. And those states are going to catch up with SC and it’s top spot re: lowest tax revenue paid per capita.
I would like to know a bit more about SC job growth and wages … Up or down?
Surely you know by now that FITS’ obsession with gloom and doom is perhaps the top obsession on this site (right up there with denigrating military service and a belief that government should do nothing other than roads and national defense). The consulting side of my business is about 30% gov’t / 70% private sector, and in 2014 (for the first time since the recession) the private sector side’s growth spanked the gov’t side. The private side is on track to do even better this year, and most of the folks I talk to out on the trail say they see the same thing. There are tough pockets, to be sure, but private saving is up and so is corporate spending.
FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OF US DEBT RISES; CHINA RECLAIMS TOP SPOT…
Tell the Chicoms to bring it, baby! They just bought a bunch of our golf courses here in the Redneck Riviera; I’m gonna see if they want my house…
?$77 /hr on the computer@md17//
,..
???https://Stoke NetM0neyMarketing.com/web/teaching…
U.S. industrial production fell for a fifth straight month in April, weighed down by declines in mining and utilities output, pointing to a lack of momentum in the economy at the start of the second quarter.
Just watch and see folks!
Fits is sort of like the proverbial monkey at the keyboard.
Give him enough time pounding away and he will eventually type out something intelligible.
He keeps calling for a recession and has been doing do so for YEARS now.One day when it happens,be it several months or years from now,we can expect him to say
“Aha!See I was right!”
FITS, We get it. Every week you dig up some report about plunging this/falling that. Put it anyway you want, we still better than we were under Dubya. Only people falling for your BS are GT and that ad I see above with the mug shot and guy missing 1/2 his head.
Bernie Sanders would offer substantial improvements for the little guys.
Bernie is the man, but unfortunately he is easy to label as a socialist (like that’s a bad thing) or whatever and he doesn’t try to scare people with rhetoric and mythical invasions of Texas. So we won’t play big on Faux News.
” but unfortunately he is easy to label as a socialist ”
Excuse while I slip into GT speak:
LMAO!
Yeah, he’s easy to label as a Socialist because that what he identifies as:
“Yeah. I wouldn’t deny it. Not for one second. I’m a democratic socialist.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/04/AR2006110401124.html
Yeah, agreed. Just wish people would look past the label and look at some of his suggestions. Kind of like most people hate ‘Obamacare’, but overwhelmingly support all the aspect of the Affordable Care Act.
Dude, no offense…but telling everyone that you are going to take their shit for the betterment of others is a tough sell. Most people like voluntarily giving their stuff to help others.
Not only are the people in office at all levels of government not doing a good job of taking people’s stuff already, but the sheeple don’t even know that most of them are secret socialists regardless of labels anyway.
Those same pols don’t have the balls to say, “Yeah, I’m a Socialist” because they know they can’t get elected for the most part. (Seattle & Vermont excepted, but hey…that’s more than 100 years ago) Although in fairness, many of them don’t view themselves as Socialists, even though they are.
Republicans, Dems, et al are all Socialists to some degree…only Bernie is honest about it.
The partisan bickering is simply a matter of degrees of Socialism.
So my hat is off to those who say they want the hardcore Socialism for their honesty in wanting to take my shit. They are truly honest thieves. A rare species indeed.
I do agree with you, but if you look at Bernie’s policies, he doesn’t really want to take EVERYONE’s shit. Just from the top 1%, and that’s the problem (and not even TAKE from them, just have them pay their damn fair share).
You can’t scare people by telling them you want to break up banks to help them. Or by showing them that by raising minimum wage, you save taxpayers money and not subsidizing the Walmarts of the world. Or by showing them that if didn’t spend $$ in Afghanistan last year, we could have used that money to fund college for EVERY American. But none of these SCARE voters, like gays or brown people.
It is clear to see, but the truth just isn’t comfortable to hear. The economy is going to drop off a cliff. And we can’t borrow our way out of it this time.
Short term fur sure, fur sure. This summer will stink. This fall will smell bad. This winter will be bad, but not intolerable … All it will take will be one rousing standing ovation for a new leader with simple economics on his mind.
I’m telling ya, cut lying, cheating, stealing Gruberment off at the pockets and the flowers will come out.
Lay Off Notices for May 15th:
May 15 , 2015
Blue Bell Creameries – 1,450
FairPoint Communications – 219
Rembrandt Enterprises – 231 Temp. Layoffs
Meredith Vieira Show – Some Layoffs
US Foods in Lakeland FL – 206
Paterson School District – 335 Layoff Notices
Lay Off Notices for May 14th:
May 14 , 2015
Bombardier ( International ) – 1,750
Monterey Peninsula Unified School District – 17 ?
FTS International – 80
One outta six ain’t too bad.
Not the same odds, but reminds me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s
ArcelorMittal Closing Georgetown Steel Mill SC
BLOOMBERG:
Plunge in U.S. Consumer Sentiment Lowers Odds of Growth Rebound
U.S. economy spiraling down
It was weaker than even the lowest estimate of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Another report showed factory production stalled in April.
News that the world’s largest economy sputtered last quarter, combined with uneven employment gains, shook households this month, raising concerns that spending will be slow to pick up. A strong dollar and weak oil prices also are holding back manufacturing, further denting the likelihood of a quick rebound in the rate of expansion.
“It’s not very encouraging for growth prospects,” said Millan Mulraine, deputy head of U.S. research & strategy at TD Securities USA in New York, who projected a drop in confidence. “The spate of numbers has been quite weak.”
Stock Market Week in Review: It’s been a rocky week for the Stock
Market. Here’s a summary:
====================
Helium was up, feathers were down. Paper was stationary. Ticonderoga
Pencils lost a few points. Though Elevators rose, escalators continued
their slow decline.
Weights were up in heavy trading. Light switches were off. Mining
equipment hit rock bottom. The market for raisins dried up. Pampers
remained unchanged.
Caterpillar stock inched up a bit. Sun peaked at midday. Birds Eye Peas Split. Stanley Tools filed for Chapter 11 and Scott Tissues touched a new bottom.
Thanks to Obama and the Democrats America finally over-dosed!
Carl Wilson-HEAVEN
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBCtRge1Vyg