2016 Leakage: A Palmetto Primer

WHY THIS COULD BE THE NASTIEST PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY YET … 

|| By FITSNEWS || As the 2016 “Republican” presidential primary comes into focus, several distinct preliminary match-ups are emerging.  These battles – the equivalent of “primaries within the primary” – pit particular GOP candidates against ideologically similar opponents in an effort to determine which is superior.

It’s a way of dividing and conquering the larger GOP electorate – with the goal of consolidating specific ideological groups under one’s banner before making a play for the bigger prize.

“You can’t win the primary without first winning your bracket,” one of the major 2016 contenders told FITS earlier this year.

That’s true …

The hope?  If a candidate can win his or her “preliminary,” they can then use the broader base they’ve secured as a springboard for a real run at the “Republican” nomination.

So … how’s this “presidential bracketology” playing out so far?

Well, we know U.S. Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are vying for fiscally conservative, Tea Party voters.  And we know Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum are vying for evangelical voters.  And we know Jeb Bush and Scott Walker are vying for the support of the “Republican” establishment.  And it could be argued Donald Trump and Ben Carson are vying against one another for the “outsider” mantle – hoping to lure voters fed up with “typical politicians.”

And let’s not forget a host of other candidates are trying to break into these brackets …

All of this leads us to a very interesting dynamic … one which could have profound implications on the 2016 election.

What do we mean?  Well, these early “primaries within the primary” – which are much more clearly demarcated than we would have expected at such an early stage of the race – create a fertile ground for political bloodsport.  And of course this ground is exceedingly fertile in early-voting South Carolina – which already has a well-earned reputation for “Republican-on-Republican” savagery.

So … why would this primary be any nastier?  Well, in addition to creating compelling early match-ups, these “primaries within the primary” also create default presumptions of guilt – or “convenient finger-pointing” in the wake of well-placed negative stories.

Here’s the dynamic in action: Suppose a political hit piece targeting one of the aforementioned candidates gets leaked to one of the dozens of reporters covering the 2016 presidential primary.  Since reporters never reveal their sources (which are the lifeblood of their profession), we’re left with a “whodunit” parlor game in determining who called in the hit.

That’s where the “brackets” come into play.  The “primaries within the primary” give us immediate suspects – namely the candidates who most directly benefit from the negative attacks.  In fact whether these candidates had anything to do with the “hit,” they stand to be blamed for it due to their ideological proximity.

Which creates a climate for all sorts of mischief …

Seriously … if you think Palmetto politics has been nasty in previous years, imagine a race in which any campaign can fire salvos at any other campaign secure in the knowledge that someone else will get blamed for it.

Because that’s precisely the landscape we’re looking at …

While some campaigns have vowed to remain positive (and others have vowed not to engage in process stories), the fact remains hundreds of operatives are hard at work spinning thousands of stories related to the 2016 primary.  Right now.  And let’s be honest, most of those stories are negative.  And while we would debate the newsworthiness of some of these hit pieces, there’s no doubt punches are being thrown – and landed.

Honestly?  We love it …

In fact we wouldn’t have it any other way.

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