AFTER IOWA, N.H. AND S.C. – “FUHGEDDABOUDIT”
|| By ROBERT ROMANO || Being first has its advantages.
Since the advent of the Iowa caucuses in 1972 and the South Carolina primary in 1980, the “first in the nation” political contests, including the New Hampshire primary which dates back to 1916, have had an uncanny knack of declaring who the nominee for president will eventually be, particularly on the Republican side of the aisle.
In fact, you cannot find a Republican nominee for president in modern history that did not win either Iowa or New Hampshire. For its part, “First in the South” South Carolina has predicted the ultimate nominee every year except for 2012, when it selected Newt Gingrich.
In years without a sitting Republican president on the ballot – 1980, 1988, 1996, 2000, 2008, and 2012 – Iowa and New Hampshire have delivered opposite results. Neither chose the same candidate.
In those years, Iowa correctly chose the party’s ultimate nominee in 1996 and 2000, Bob Dole and George W. Bush, respectively. New Hampshire took the other four: Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008, and Mitt Romney in 2012.
South Carolina beats them both, having chosen the eventual nominee 5 out of 6 times. But, it is worth noting that coming slightly later in succession, South Carolina voters have the benefit of seeing the other early contests play out.
The one time South Carolina got it wrong, in 2012, happened to be a year when it did not select one of the winners of Iowa or New Hampshire.
So, Iowa and New Hampshire choose the players and breaks the field down, but South Carolina tends to decide the outcome of the GOP contest.
The importance is shared on the Democrat side, too, but to a lesser extent as there are a couple of notable exceptions. Bill Clinton managed to secure the nomination in 1992 without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire, and so did George McGovern back in 1972.
Still, two-thirds of the years where no incumbent Democrat was running – 1976, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, and 2008 – the nominee had won either Iowa or New Hampshire.
With more than three decades of compelling evidence, then, a virtual monopoly emerges for Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina – which constitute less than four percent of the nation’s population – selecting the Republican presidential nominee.
(To continue reading this piece, press the “Read More …” icon below).
Robert Romano is the Senior Editor of Americans for Limited Government. This piece (reprinted with permission) originally appeared on NetRightDaily.com.
14 comments
count the strength of your enemy by the arrows in the backs of the pioneers.
Good one – I’m writing that one down Euwe. Should I credit Euwe with that?
I’m a public domain clown.
What is the gooey red stuff between an elephant’s toes? Slow clowns.
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(just for fun)
Joe took his blind date to the carnival. “What would you like to do first, Kim?” asked Joe. “I want to get weighed,” she said. They ambled over to the weight guesser. He guessed 130 pounds. She got on the scale; it read 110 and she won a prize.
Next the couple went on the ferris wheel. When the ride was over, Joe again asked Kim what she would like to do. “I want to get weighed,” she said. Back to the weight guesser they went. Since they had been there before, he guessed her correct weight, and Joe lost his dollar.
The couple walked around the carnival and again he asked where to next. “I want to get weighed,” she responded. By this time, Joe figured she was really weird and took her home early, dropping her off with a handshake.
Her roommate, Laura, asked her about the blind date, “How’d it go?” Kim responded, “Oh, Wauwa, it was wousy.”
Why do ducks have flat feet?
To stomp out forest fires.
Why do elephants have flat feet?
To stomp out flaming ducks.
Q: Do rhinos really stomp out fires?
A:There are quite a number of legends about the rhinoceros stamping out fire. The story seems to have been common in Malaysia and Burma.
This type of rhinoceros even had a special name in Malay, ‘badak api’, where badak means rhinoceros and api means fire. The animal would come when a fire is lit in the forest and stamp it out.
If there is or can be any truth in the legend, it would be hard to decide. Suffice it to say that there has been no sighting of this phenomenon in recent history.
Of course, the rhinoceros in South East Asia has become very rare is hardly ever met nowadays, as it keeps to the deep forest and high mountains.
Q:What are the reasons for the continually decreasing rhino population?
A: Forest fires.
Max, I know why I am still awake — but you?
You didn’t answer my question about the stripper clowns.
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Why is it that we will laugh at a man in a clown outfit, but we don’t laugh at a man just walking down the street carrying a clown outfit in one of those plastic dry-cleaner bags?
It seems to be happening everywhere—-
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The giant panda lives in bamboo thickets and feeds on bamboo shoots. There are only 36 giant pandas
left. The reason there are only 36 giant pandas left is the shortage of bamboo shoots, which the natives eat in great quantity, especially with baked giant panda.
what’s black and white and black and white and black and white?
a panda on a spit…. with a nun.
Max, have you ever met any stripper clowns? —- CONFESS..!!
NEWT, now there was a FAMILY VALUE candidate for you!
YOU BETCHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yep. Wasn’t it Meatloaf who sang, “5 out of 6 ain’t bad”?
yep, the “Bat Out of Hell” album.
Blah, blah, blah … Waiting for the fat lady to start singing.
Past performance may not predict future results. Your results may vary.
“South Carolina has predicted the ultimate nominee every year except for 2012, when it selected Newt Gingrich” (an attention craving “has been” if there ever was one).
That’s a mighty big “EXCEPT” there Romano……………………….
You forgot to mention that South Carolina was the ONLY state that selected Newt!!!!!
2012 in the South Carolina GOP primary spoke volumes about who voted in the GOP primary poll (basically a lot of rightwing nuts voted for Newt in the primary).
My hunch is that this will not be the last time it happens…………….