FEDERAL RESERVE DOWNGRADES ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS
|| By FITSNEWS || Remember the “rainbows and unicorns” crowd? The ones who just a few months ago were telling us the American economy was on a tear?
Yeah … we’re still waiting on that “tear” to materialize …
Now the Federal Reserve – America’s secretive central bank – is downgrading its growth forecasts for the next three years. Growth this year – last projected at 2.8 percent – has been downgraded to 2.5 percent. Next year’s growth – originally pegged at 2.75 percent – has also been cut to 2.5 percent. Finally, projections for 2017 growth were trimmed from 2.4 to 2.2 percent.
Yeah … where are all those “rainbows and unicorns” now?
According to the Fed, economic growth has “moderated somewhat” rather than “expanding at a solid pace.” Also “export growth has weakened,” due in no small part to the corporate cronyist trade deals this website has been consistently opposing.
Yet while the fundamentals of the American economy appear to be getting weaker, the Fed seems inclined to start raising interest rates (a.k.a. the cost of borrowing) sooner rather than later.
Interest rates have been set near zero since December 2008 – and haven’t been raised since June 2006.
What impact will an increase have? Well, rate adjustments typically operate on at least a 12-month lag, so if the Federal Reserve indeed raises rates in June (as many expect they will do) the real impact won’t be felt until next spring. Ultimately, though, it will translate into reduced spending and reduced demand for goods and services – sort of an economic “brake pedal” intended to keep inflation in check.
68 comments
Chicken Little.
Under Obama, Chicken Little has been 100% RIGHT, and then some.
And Chicken S#!* – Obama – has been about as Wrong as Wrong can be.,…
Well if there ever was a king of chicken sh$# it would be you, Mayor of Crapville.
THE OIL IS FALLING!
THE OIL IS FALLING!
So are you telling me the Stock Market Billions, collected by the rich-investor-class for the last 6 years, came on the backs of the exorbitant per-gallon gas prices our families have been struggling under since 2009???
Export weakness has nothing to do with TPP, hell it isn’t even signed yet and wont be for several years to come. The weakness is because the Saudi’s tanked oil prices fucking with the more expensive to extract tar sand oil. Also if you haven’t noticed the Euro has dropped like 25% ytd vs the dollar (good time for a vacation to Europe btw)
Obama usually Boasts GIGANTIC faux gains to a fawning media…then quietly revises it down, when no one is looking…
Well actually, growth rates under Obama have been the same or better under Bush. The last time the GOP was in control over the economy the average growth rate in the first three years alone was around 1.8% – but Grand Fandango never admits that. He’ll next say I’m lying. But the numbers speak for themselves
2001 – 1.0
2002 – 1.8
2003 – 2.8
Then there were a few good years built on a real estate bubble because Bush had sent the Secretary of the Treasury in 2004 over to China to convince them to ship billions back into mortgage back securities keeping rates low, while having the Office of Thif Supervision look the other way while thifts like IndyMac and Washington Mutual (a big Florence employer I might add) to go hog wild into Alt-A and Option ARM loans with 100% financing. And then the bubble burst. So since we got over the worst of that at end of 2009? Annual average of 2.3% – imrpoving every year.
But here’s the really good news. The worst is over, and in 2017 Bill and Hillary will be back in the White House. GDP growth 1993 through 2000. 3.9%
So thanks again to the Democratic Party, and Bill and Hillary Clinton, we’ll get out of this great mess started by the GOP-controlled cabal 2001-2008. Proving once again, that the Bush and Cheney families have done more to harm middle class Americans that ISIS, Sadam Hussien and Hitler combined.
But Grand Wango-Tango will again say I’m a liar, because he can’t be bothered to either confirm it, with research, or he just calls everyone who doesn’t agree with his incorrect and ill-informed positions a liar. When in fact, a simple thank you would be sufficient.
Queue Rocky’s a f$#ing dumb@$$ lair…. in five, four, three, two, one…
When you just make up numbers, like you and Obama, it can be anything you want.
But people living REAL LIFE, who are struggling under this F*#king Disaster of a president, know better.
If you are struggling in REAL LIFE, how do blame the President? People are struggling because of food stamp cuts, no extension ofn unemployment benefits, and sequestration that benefit poor and middle class. The RepoTeaParty caused this, not to mention the last President and his unnecessary wars. When the poor and middle class have money to spend, the economy grows. Yeah, I know– never let facts get in the way of one’s twisted beliefs.
Because of Obamacare, hiring has been diminished for the last 5 years. Employers cannot afford to pay Obamacare, and salaries. And FT jobs were cut into 2 PT jobs to avoid Obamacare. And hours have been cut.
And: Obama has all but shut down oil drilling on public lands. He has attacked the coal industry, so that the cost for power companies to produce energy has SKYROCKETED…
Development of nuclear reactors for power has been seriously thwarted because of all of the added regulations…Enormous increases in energy prices cripple a company’s ability to grow. They contract, and lay off workers..
Why won’t Obama allow the Keystone pipeline….???
Also: You are a TREMENDOUS F*#KING idiot to claim food stamps have been cut or unemployment benefits are the CAUSE of struggling…
Obama increased Food Stamp usage by 20 million, to almost 50 million Americans (and/or illegals)..and unemployment benefits were extended to the most ever paid in the history of the US…
You are a F*#KING Brain-dead IDIOT!!!!
It’s peole as F*#king STUPID as you Voting, as the reason this country is in such bad F*#king shape…
.
We’ve had the strongest job growth in a decade over the last five years, but yeah, don’t let facts and figures get in your way. Please proceed. As predictable as a crap the morning after taking strong fiber.
You’re just Full of $#!t to still be pushing that mythology. People know better. Just look at the vote on Nov. 4.
If a freakin’ house fell on you – you’de say it never happened. You’re a fool. I’m so glad you don’t live near me – I’d have to move.
On Politico today “Americans are more likely than ever to say President Barack Obama’s time in the White House has been successful, according to a new CNN/ORC poll released Thursday.”
Must suck to be you.
CNN…LMAO…You’re not THAT F*#king Stupid are you???…
PS: What did the American People poll of Nov. 4 say???….Hahahahaha..
And: What did the poll from Israel on Tuesday say???…LMAO…
Well Tuesday was people in Israel electing their Prime Minister – and that affects our economy, and the Obama-recovery how? It isn’t even relevant stupid. You really are a trolling idiot. Can we change your name to Village Idiot?
So you’re saying the Middle East has NOTHING to do w/ the US, or our economy???…
You cannot be THAT F*#king Stupid…can you?
Tango- not sure where to start. I’m not stupid, I’m not brain dead. I just don’t agree with your views. The country is getting in worse shape everyday, but not because of liberals and those with the abiltiy to think and reason.
Unemployment is lower than it was five years ago. So bullshit on the diminished hiring thought.
Oil prices are down. All Keystone does is create three dozen jobs and put us at an increased risk for environmental disasters– for the benefit of Canadian oil companies.
As for coal, it is dirty– and please forgive me GT– I prefer breathing clean air and drinking clean water. It may cost now, but it will save $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ in the future. You are worried about the next generation assuming our massive debt, how about worry about them assuming a toxic nightmare.
When you take money and beneftis from the poor the middle class suffers. I’m not a fan of food stamps, but while the poor supposedly get food, the local grocery stores sell that food. When poor people get unemployment benefits they spend that money on Main Street. The poor and middle class are not hoarding cash.
There are lots of abuses in the food stamp, Medicaid, Medicare and most government programs. But in terms of actual “abuse” dollars — I’ll bet 90% of the total “abuse” dollars belong to the top 1% and big corporations– your buddies.
I rest my case.
I rest my case on the vote of Nov. 4…and the Israeli election that Obama got involved in…that ended earlier this week…
An incredible display of economic ignorance.
Meanwhile, the market’s response was to run the Dow up 227.11 to 18,076.19
https://www.google.com/search?sourceid=chrome-psyapi2&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8&q=dow%20jones%20industrial%20average&oq=Dow%20Jones&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0l5.5647j0j7
Market IMO are driven by consumer confidence, has nothing to do with the real value. The Tulip Bulbs were likely the first “bubble” if you can imagine. Let me see if I can find an article
Consumers do not buy stock. 90% of stock is purchased by the wealthiest 5% of Americans. Most of the rest is in mutual funds controlled by the wealthiest 5%.
I used to by my own stock. I still buy some in my IRA account.
Did you ever notice that when Bush and the GOP pushed through the Bush tax cuts in Capital Gain tax rates and Dividend tax rates, they excluded capital gains and dividends earned in IRAs and 401ks from the cuts. That is because, only the Mega Wealthy have significant capital gains and dividends outside of retirement plans. If the average American owns stock it is almost certainly in a retirement plan.
As a result, 99% of the Bush Tax cuts went to the wealthiest 3% of Americans.
I wish someone would implement tax cuts “in Capital Gain tax rates and Dividend tax rates, they excluded capital gains and dividends earned in IRAs and 401ks” Especially since many of us will not reap the full benefits, if any, from the Social Security System we paid into.
That will never happen on a Republican watch. That would not benefit the job creators and they may have to cut defense contractor compensation to pay for it.
It certainly hasn’t happened on President Obama’s watch either. I don’t see that he has made any huge defense cuts, contrary to what Sen. Graham says.
I do believe in strong defense and I also believe a strong defense requires a strong offense as well.
I am trying not to be disagreeable, because I am trying to quit smoking and I am afraid that my frustration might come out in the medium.
Obama cannot pass tax legislation. Obama cannot cut defense spending. Its all deflection. Blame Obama for everything. Only Congress can cut taxes. They want to, but only for the top 5% of taxpayers. They need everyone else to pay for that cut. Only Congress can cut defense spending. They do not want to, because defense contractors are paying them not to. That is what dark money gets you.
Strong Defense?. We spend more on defense than the next three largest countries combined. How much is enough?
Yet you blame Bush for the tax cuts? Interesting how that works. I am aware that the House hold the purse strings. Perhaps if Obama tried to work with Republicans v. around them, they could all accomplish something.
I don’t believe it is because defense contractors are paying them not to. Sure they make campaign contributions, but on very rare occasion does the President have anything to do with awarding contracts. The only time I can recall that happening was in the case of the failed Obamacare system, remember when it was supposed to be online? Who was friends with the company hired?
Please not I blamed Bush and the Republicans, not just Bush. Republicans controlled both houses.
Work with Republicans. What a joke. They vowed the day he was elected that making him a one term president was their only goal. and to oppose anything he proposed, even if they had proposed it in the past. There was no one to work with. He could either work around them or do nothing.
There is no one to work with now, except maybe Graham, but that wasn’t the case when he was first elected IMHO.
“In the November 4, 2008 elections, the Democratic Party increased its majorities in both chambers, giving President Obama a Democratic majority in the legislature for the first two years of his presidency.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/111th_United_States_Congress
That does not even make any sense. The Republican Minority in the Senate filibustered every single thing he tried to do. The Republicans have never been willing to work with Obama on anything. Hell most of the ideas in the ACA were Republican ideas, they abandoned as soon as Obama proposed them.
“Obama cannot pass tax legislation.”…why not he has a pen and a phone?
“Horse hockey”, said COL Blake. OASDI has a continual funding stream that at worst (catastrophic) case funds 75% of need. Adjustments to the program through eligibility age increase, upping the income cap levels levels etc will ensure its survivability. Besides, you talk like the money you pay into OASDI is yours. Oops
It is interesting how things on the internet change, but at one time, on Social Security website, they said YES, it was setup as a retirement system. Then there was a lot of borrowing against said system and the language changed over time.
Yes, I would like a refund, thank you kindly.
… Again at the recommendations of that fagot Barnyard Frankfurter …
Yes, we all noticed, yes we all blame Bush & Barney & the republicrats & the “progressives” Fascists.
Another hidden agenda in the machinations of congress during the Bush years: allowing “insider” trading by the 525 congress critters and their staff and their “trust” fund keepers and way too many DC Beltway bandits … (Which overrode The Slick One’s signed into law1997 congressional “ethics” reforms.)
… as long as the middle classes and the poor are suffering under the cruelest tax of all: inflation … consumers will not be buying any stocks.
Eddy, It really depends on the Consumer whether they buy stock or not. It isn’t so much that consumers buy the stock as it is whether the consumer believes the economy is getting better, if they start spending money, where are they spending their money and so on. There is largely a disagreement between logical and behavioral economics.
Like fools, there was a time we used the stock market for a savings account. When a bubble burst, stocks tanked. For years I followed the Chairman of the Fed and instead of panicking and selling what little stock we had left, we saved and continued to buy it all the way down. We were just an average young middle class couple who eeked out some earnings v. losses because we did listen and watch the market. I knew whenever they started raising rates, it was to buy, consumer confidence was going up.
I do agree with your assessment of inflation as a cruel, but not so much a tax, it market driven. Inflation is really hurting the lower/middle income families. Groceries are ridiculous high right now.
1) That was then, this is now: No one should be in the stock markets unless they have pooled their money with funds, like the Vanguard or Schwab ETFs. The main reason is that these funds and managers can whip g’ment employees into line, challange taxsucking congress critters, even intimidate the Fed Mother.
2) Allen Greenspan is still alive and writing. Even He, even he … has said repeatedly that the federal government does not need the IRS … in testimony before congress, too.
( A review: http://www.goldtalk.com/forum/showthread.php?t=32455
“… “The fall of the Soviet Union concluded a vast experiment: the long standing debate about the virtues of economies organized around free markets and those governed by centrally planned socialism is essentially at an end. … Some governments, such as that of China, even now attempt to override the evident preferences of their citizens by limiting their access to foreign media, which they fear will undermine their culture. … Nonetheless, the verdict on central planning has been rendered, and it is unequivocally negative.” …”)
3) “All inflation is caused by government, government prints the money and government can too easily print too much.”
“… Groceries are ridiculous high right now.” – And who’s fault is that? The farmers? The refiners? The grocers? The truckers? The poor? The middle classes? … Congress? Quasi-Socialist spend-thrifts in Gruberment? The Fed and Treasury? Oh Bummer?
Many hate Alan Greenspan, but he did favor free-markets. There were also some things he experienced happen in the market that totally surprised him too, he was surprised by its resilience.
I agree, government prints too much money and weakens the dollar.
Let me read your post, seems you may actually know something about how the Federal Reserve actually works v. spouting a bunch on nonsensical opinions that are baseless.
I’ll have to reply later – lunch is over.
The one group that “hates” Greenspan are the “progressive” Fascists in and out of Gruberment.
From 1987 to 2006 He was Chairman of the Fed Reserve. During all os that time His one single guiding ideal was to contain inflation … primarily by allowing the adjustment of the fed interest rates verses a changing “basket” of commodities, like food, fuel, metals … successfully.
There are a lot of libertarian leaning republicans who don’t care Greenspan, simply because he did work for the Federal Reserve. Greenspan was influenced by Ayn Rand who initially didn’t even like him, affectionately referred to him as the “undertaker” and poking jokes such as “has he decided if he really does exist” – he was more of a positivist, everything was uncertain in his world.
However, after Joan introduced them and conversations with Barbara, I think he was influenced by some of her ideas, particularly free-markets. He wanted to take that knowledge and work as an insider.
While many want to blame him for all “turbulence” – I can think of no one better suited for the job. He also gave me a greater appreciation for the Federal Reserve.
As for Ayn Rand, I am far more impressed by Nathaniel than her. Yes, she has some great works of fiction, even her philosophy of objectivism is appealing, but she herself was a controlling manipulator who was self serving and an absolute contradiction to some of her works. Her closest friends mockingly called themselves the “collective” but I can find no better term to describe them. So many lives she destroyed. Of course, they allowed it, but poor Frank and Barbara and even Nathaniel who was to young to realize what he was getting into.
The deeper I dig, the less impressed I am with Ayn Rand and her philosophy.
” … While many want to blame him for all “turbulence” – I can think of no one better suited for the job. He also gave me a greater appreciation for the Federal Reserve. …”
Barnyard Frankfurter asked Him for “approval” to allow banks to operate as brokers & brokers to operate as banks, He gave His tentative approvals with the caveat that those conglomerates have special “stress tests” and restrictions from congress … Which that Evil Masshituseless senator/congressman/fagot went ahead and worked around … leaving the back door open to “sub-prime” bundles of Fraudy/Phoney/BCCI-type paper … figuratively and in reality.
After Greenspan resigned in ’05, those Wall Street, et al, screw-ups opened both doors and all of the windows of the bank/brokers and flooded the world “equity” markets with junk bundles = Lehman Bros, et al, bankruptcies and the 2007 crash. … As you full well know. Oh Bummer.
I’m betting you and I and everyone here will never be able to recover our losses from that hosing of the private sector by the public sector … let alone the tax deductions.
Isn’t that the free market at work?
This market is being driven by a Gruberment confidence [game] and pump-n-dump paper hangers.
Consumer confidence? “I been down so long it looks like up to me.”
in the final analysis, the only thing that matters is earnings and the expectation of continued earnings.
… and those earnings us taxpayers get to keep. It is no mystery why every Fortune 500 company has a presence offshore while us middle class taxpayers are being eaten alive by the taxsuckers.
Jus sayin: Burger King is now a Canadian company. Why? No BummerCare and no double taxation on profits.
“The amount the market declined from peak to bottom: This number is difficult to calculate, but, we can tell you that at the peak of the market, a person could trade a single tulip for an entire estate, and, at the bottom, one tulip was the price of a common onion.”
Market Crashes: The Tulip and Bulb Craze http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes2.asp
Entirely driven by the Witless House, Mother Fed and Goldman Sack of It …
“It ain’t over ’till it’s over!”
One thing for sure. The recovery will not begin until the recovery begins. No matter that the banks and wall streeters are getting fat. They bought the democrats, paid the price of admission into the Witless House, into Gruberment, into the several g’ment disrupted industries.
(Who has supplied the last two fed chairs, the last two treasury secs.? Goldman Sacks of it. Who has financed the three most recent national and regional democrat campaigns? Who has been touting the Government Motors bailout, the ObamaCare medical industry grab … and the really big bohica?)
Since 2008 through to today, continuously, the “too big to fail” big eight banks and the multitudes of greedy hedge phuckups have been on the receiving end …
So, all you liberals stupnagles and neo-con brown eye cowboys …
When Do Us Taxpayers Get Bailed Out ? ! ?
Well said.
You just need to get a different or second job, curb your spending on things unnecessary, tighten your belt, borrow money from your parent to start a business…
Isn’t that what you said to the (working) poor? Well then..
“get a different or second job, curb your spending on things unnecessary, tighten your belt,”…did all that and got ahead, I live well enough now in retirement. You forgot one thing, I saved some money.
Let me congratulate you for reaping the rewards of your efforts. Did you have any child care, housing, health, transportation, educational, or color/cultural barriers to overcome in the process? Nothing personal, I just don’t want anyone to assume the playing field is level or what worked for you should be an easy template to apply for everyone else. For millions of workers, this is a not a matter of character (or lack thereof), positive social values, or motivation. The barriers are real
Only if you let it be, the playing field has never been nor will it ever be level.
It wasn’t an easy template, I worked hard and sacrificed to reach an end goal and didn’t wait for the government or politicians to level the field.
The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal. ~Aristotle
Why is that worse than making equal things unequal?
You’ll have to ask Aristotle, it’s his quote.
BTW where did the number zero come from?
You answered the questioned about believing the urban myth of “if you just want it badly enough.” And, you didn’t answer my question about the categorical barriers in your case. What you have though is a well-defended ability to tolerate the suffering of others because you place the responsibility for their suffering on them. It also conveniently denies the systematic efforts to create and maintain barriers to equal opportunity, ones that are still quite alive.
Did I say there are no barriers, be as philosophical as you want, it’s just your opinion. Think of me whatever you wish, I could care less, this is after all the internet.
Isn’t it great to live in a country that allows free thought, free expression of ideas and the opportunity to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness if you just pursue them?
FARC You!
I should convert my full time job to a part time job so I have time to create more businesses and hire more people.
Probably because republicans are now in charge of congress and the possibility of a republican president.
That wouldn’t make sense:
“The members of the Board of Governors are nominated by the President of the United States and confirmed by the U.S. Senate. By law, the appointments must yield a “fair representation of the financial, agricultural, industrial, and commercial interests and geographical divisions of the country,” and no two Governors may come from the same Federal Reserve District.
The full term of a Governor is 14 years; appointments are staggered so that one term expires on January 31 of each even-numbered year. A Governor who has served a full term may not be reappointed, but a Governor who was appointed to complete the balance of an unexpired term may be reappointed to a full 14-year term.
Once appointed, Governors may not be removed from office for their policy views. The lengthy terms and staggered appointments are intended to contribute to the insulation of the Board–and the Federal Reserve System as a whole–from day-to-day political pressures to which it might otherwise be subject.
In addition to serving as members of the Board, the Chairman and Vice Chairman of the Board serve terms of four years, and they may be reappointed to those roles and serve until their terms as Governors expire. The Chairman serves as public spokesperson and representative of the Board and manager of the Board’s staff. The Chairman also presides at Board meetings. Affirming the apolitical nature of the Board, recent Presidents of both major political parties have selected the same person as Board Chairman.”
http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/about_12591.htm
Hmmmm….The was the Press Release that came out today:
Release Date: March 18, 2015
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow and export growth has weakened. Inflation has declined further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of energy price declines and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress–both realized and expected–toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. Consistent with its previous statement, the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term. This change in the forward guidance does not indicate that the Committee has decided on the timing of the initial increase in the target range.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150318a.htm
Income redistribution is the answer, gotta spread the wealth around. Screw working.
Typical teanut hyperbole. Americans work their ass off. They work more than almost any country in the world, and yet because of trickle down policies they continue to lose ground. You can buy into your Fake News crap all you want, but the middle class is not failing for lack of work. They are failing because they are being screwed by a government dedicated to the making the mega wealthy and large corporations richer and richer at their expense. And yes that effort is largely spearheaded by the Republican Party.
If you say so Jack.