Rick Manning: Pay Attention, GOP Governors

“Walker says that “just last month our reforms helped create 8,400 new jobs.” Not quite. As a graphic in the ad makes clear, Walker is only speaking of private-sector jobs. The state’s gain in total employment for September was actually a paltry 300 jobs. The governor is glossing over big drops in local government jobs.
Walker also says, “Wisconsin now ranks in the top four states in the Midwest for private-sector job growth.” It’s true that Wisconsin ranks fourth among the 10 Midwestern states he lists in his ad in job gains over the most recent 12 months, but it ranks fifth (in both private and total jobs) among the 12 states that make up the “Midwest” under the U.S. Census Bureau’s definition. Walker omits Missouri and Kansas.
Midwestern Job Gains Walker’s Full TermThe fact is that over Walker’s full term in office, which began Jan. 3, 2011, the state’s job gains have been well below the national average, and rank (in percentage terms) only ninth among all 12 Midwestern states.
Our calculations are based on seasonally adjusted figures for total nonfarm employment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Survey, which is the most timely and most commonly used measure of employment at the state and national levels. It is also the source cited by Walker’s ad to support his “top four” claim.
And what those figures show is that as of September, the most recent figures available and the last that will be released before Election Day, the state has gained 4.3 percent in total employment since Walker took office. Meanwhile, the United States as a whole has gained 6.6 percent during the same period.
We’ll note once again that elected officials have only limited influence over the broad economic forces that drive the economy, and frequently claim more credit or receive more blame than they really deserve.
But Walker made a campaign promise in 2010 that if elected he would create 250,000 jobs during his four-year term, and he repeated that pledge when he was inaugurated. So far the state has added less than half that many — 118,700.
Most Recent 12 Months
Recent Midwestern Job GainsTo be sure, the state’s economy has picked up steam in the most recent 12 months, as has the national economy as a whole. But even during this period, Wisconsin is still below the national average, and ranks fifth among all 12 Midwestern states.
Our calculations put the state’s gain in total employment at 1.5 percent since September of last year. During the same period, the U.S. as a whole gained 1.9 percent.
So Walker is correct when he says in his ad that the state is “not last” — but it’s only in the “top four” among the 10 states Walker uses for his comparison.
In Walker’s defense, the state’s unemployment rate improved in September to 5.5 percent, which is slightly better than the national average of 5.9 percent. Wisconsin is currently tied with Virginia for the 17th lowest jobless rate among all 50 states.
But it’s also true that despite the gains under Walker, nearly 23,000 fewer people were employed in September than at Wisconsin’s high point, which was June 2007. Unlike the country as a whole, the state has yet to regain all the jobs lost during and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009.
So the state’s economic performance under Walker is neither as good as he would have voters believe, or as bad as his Democratic critics were still claiming as recently as Oct. 13 in an ad saying Wisconsin job growth under Walker is “dead last in the Midwest.” As we’ve seen, it’s not.”

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