WHAT WENT UP … COMES DOWN (HARD)
By FITSNEWS || Bad news this week for those predicting a big holiday shopping season …
A month after a surge in consumer confidence, the measurement suffered a steep and unexpected dip in November – with the Conference Board’s key index dropping from 94.1 to 88.7. That erased all of October’s gain – and marked the lowest reading for the index since June.
Even worse? The hit to expectations. Analysts had predicted the measure would climb to 96.6 percent this month – one of its highest readings ever. That didn’t happen, as the unbridled optimism of October gave way to November nervousness.
November’s “current situation” reading was 91.3 – down from 94.4 in October. Most troubling, though, was the “expectations” decline – from 93.8 to 87.
“Consumers were somewhat less positive about current business conditions and the present state of the job market; moreover, their optimism in the short-term outlook in both areas has waned,” said Lynn Franco, the Conference Board’s director of economic indicators.
Yup … and don’t forget the fact those who do have jobs aren’t making what they once did.
Frankly it amazed us October’s confidence was so high given America’s stagnant income growth and the 93 million working age citizens currently not in the labor pool. But hey … we’re still hopeful the consumer economy will rebound in spite of government’s efforts to kill it.
Economists watch consumer confidence closely because it often provides a glimpse of what consumer spending might do in the future. And of course consumer spending provides a glimpse of what employment might do in the future. Which provides a glimpse of what incomes might do in the future.
In other words it’s a vicious cycle when things aren’t going well …
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26 comments
Well obviously the mid-terms have had an impact. Suddenly consumers woke on on Nov 5 and realized the GOP had won the Senate and increased their margins in the House and remembered how the GOP ran the economy off the cliff. And with all the new pro-CEO kids in Congress – you know there ain’t gonna be raises this year, and there won’t be an increase in minimum wage. But mainly, the GOP has scared the bejeazus out of everyone. Housing sales will probably fall too.
Well obviously the mid-terms have had an impact. Suddenly consumers woke on on Nov 5 and realized the GOP had won the Senate and increased their margins in the House…
Hey Rocky, you better rein in that horse before it runs all over the cart.
“Wink, wink” BTW – GDP revised Q3 to 3.9% – so I suspect the “confidence” was more deflated by non-economic stuff like Ebola scare, yada, yada – general feeling of “things are crappy” than anything else. You don’t chug along gaining an average of 4+ percent if things are bad. (That goes for the BS U+6 number)
I think you give “the People” way to much credit for thinking about the issues and the impact of their votes. Poll after poll show voters support the positions of Democrats on many issues all over the nation. Then those same voters go out and vote for Republicans. It isn’t rational or even thoughtful.
Hey, I’m a Dem, but logically speaking Rocky you are talking about “the people” who by huge margins voted in the Republicans from dog catcher to Senate in almost every state in the union? Those people. Dude, I agree with much of what you say about Republicans crushing the country financially – cutting taxes during war time, cutting employee SS contribution when it running a deficit, et cetera et cetera, and I’ll give my fellow Americans a lot of credit for be collectively really dumb at times, but not so dumbe they would simultaneously say in grand wide unified majorities go GOP! And God this is going to hurt the economy! At the same time!?!
… and the media might not accept blatant Grubered lies about the real. state of the economy?
This post is like his stock market posts.
When the market falls,there will be a post predicting dire days ahead.When it recovers(often setting new records)?Silence.
Same here.
How’s you Ebola?
Next you’ll expect reports on how the Benghazi hearings are going, or how the uninsured rates are fairing, or how many of the right wing pols and groups speaking against Net Neutrality take money from Comcast and other huge corporate telcos.
I’m still waiting for the two or three days it will take for Fox News to retract or correct all their baseless Benghazi reporting.
Hey Lindsay Graham said that was all a
“Bunch of crap.”
I’m enjoying Fits and his fellow Lindsay haters here.They really want to agree with Lindsay because if there is one person they hate more than Graham it’s Obama.
But they’ve bashed Lindsay so much that they are having a problem now agreeing with him!
So little time,so much Hate!
Odd too, because it was written by the Republicans. But by that RINO Rogers who also came out on the heels of the “illegal for illegals” Executive Order suddenly saying the GOP was willing to conference with the WHite House using the Senate bill as a starting point. Hey, isn’t he a close friend of Boehner – King Rino?
The Conference Board is an organization that has a total operating expense of $58,073.
See page 31 of link.
https://www.conference-board.org/retrievefile.cfm?filename=TCB-Annual-Report-20131.pdf&type=subsite
Why would any one put much weight on such wildly fluctuating numbers from such a small organization?
I have become very suspicious of government data. Government figures showed South Carolina’s GDP growth was the highest on the East coast in 2012. Twelve months later SC GDP for 2012 was revised way down. If you can’t trust the Governments numbers with all its resources, why trust the Conference Board?
By the way, SC’s workforce participation rate improve in October by 0.2 % to 58.3%. Fits where is your story?
http://www.bls.gov/lau/ststdsadata.txt
I don’t believe much of what any government entity says. It’s all about the politics. They weight different factors and include or exclude different factors depending on what the outcome is that they want. It’s all about who is in power and who wants to be in power and who controls the numbers. None of it is true.
LMAO..FITS is always SHOCKED at bad news under Obama, even though we’ve bathed in SIX LONG YEARS of Bad News…and even the “good” news is found to be fudged, or “revised” WAY downward…
Silly FITS…and all the lefties…you sure are STUPID to keep thinking anything is going to get better before Obama is either neutered, or GONE…Your myths about redistribution – and ‘you didn’t build that’ economics are just that…while FREE MARKETS work…so that the doers can pay the handouts you takers increase…
Psst! Medicaid!!
Care to explain this?
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-third-quarter-gdp-revised-up-to-3-9-advance-1416922352
The economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than a decade during the spring and summer, showing the U.S. has strengthened its economic footing despite increasing global uncertainty.
BTW, where is the FITS article on this?
I don’t believe a D@m* thing your media pushes forth – unless it can be attributed to the BIG GOP @$$ kickin’ on y’all of Nov. 4.
Obama has just moved to make things WORSE. (FCC Web tax, jobs to illegals, a fee on breathing and EPA regulations.) There is no fundamental change that would move numbers, except downward. And I don’t think the market has had time to react to your major defeat.
Like the “Gentle Giant” claim, every bit of the Bull-S#!t that you devour, is myth-based…not reality…
Translation; Not matter what facts are presented, even by GOP owned (Murdock) mouthpieces, I will not believe it, because it does not fit my nutty right wing narrative that is based on fear of a black man having power.
Hmmm…. Not seeing a date on that truncated piece you are letting speak for you, because you’re too STUPID to do it yourself. If you can tell the where the alleged “growth” is…it may explain a lot of why there is NO enthusiasm, optimism or hope (consumer confidence.) US consumer credit is spiking too. Not a Good sign.
And again NO ONE is seeing any recovery. We’re seeing HIGH medical costs, for less service and astronomical food prices…and still no jobs…And gas is STILL way higher than it was in Bush’s first 6 years on average…
Not to mention you’ve been busted more than once LYING about numbers because your god-in-chief has been an abysmal failure…(see Nov. 4)….So I’m guessing MOST voters don’t believe the S#!t you’re gobbling, either.
Here it is from the Dept of Commerce. The date is 11/25/14
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
.gov..LMAO..Are you that F*#king stupid after what Obama did to the unemployment numbers before the 2012 election???..Like Ferguson…You believe what you want to believe, and disregard REALITY…Hahahaha…,gov…hahahaha…Dumb@$$….
So im guessing you gave up on http://www.noonevisitsmylameblog.com huh? Gonna blame that failure in life on obama too? Ahh back to bashing the site you visit a thousand times a day sayiong how lame it and how smart you are? “cause my momma says so..she like my blog site!!” #myusualtwoblogsitevisits #thanksmom
Psst – Q3 growth revised up to 3.9% – just so you know – you can’t do that with falling wages and high unemployment. Just compare growth rates with 2008 under your hump buddy Bush.
I don’t believe a D@m* thing being disseminated – unless it can be attributed to the BIG GOP @$$ kickin’ on y’all of Nov. 4. Obama has just moved to make things WORSE. There is no fundamental change that would move numbers, except downward. And I don’t think the market has had time to react to your major defeat.
My IRA is at a record level, despite mandatory withdrawals for three years, so I’m feeling OK.