IS THE ISSUE HELPING “REPUBLICANS?”
Conventional political wisdom isn’t always right … sometimes it’s dead wrong. Then again there are those times when it’s both right and wrong. Simultaneously.
How is that possible?
Consider the immigration debate … which is generally regarded as a political loser for “Republicans” because it highlights the extent to which the GOP is lily white and racially tone deaf. Oh, and also on the wrong side of American demographic curve – which saw the white percentage of the U.S. electorate drop to an all-time low of 72 percent in 2012.
“Republican” nominee Mitt Romney won the white vote by a 20 percent margin two years ago – the biggest gap since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 reelection – but it wasn’t enough to win him the White House.
Part of Romney’s problem? The former Massachusetts governor was a fiscally liberal socialized medicine supporter whose ideology on a wide range of issues was barely distinguishable from the ideology espoused by Barack Obama.
Which meant he lost the support of free market backers like us …
Another part of Romney’s problem was that only one out of every ten voters who supported him was non-white – compared to four out of every ten Obama voters. Among Hispanics in particular, Romney tanked – netting 27 percent of the demographic compared to George W. Bush’s 40 percent.
Anyway, the ongoing whitening of the GOP clearly portends diminished electoral returns for the party moving forward (same with Republicans’ wholesale abandonment of the “limited government, lower taxes” mantra). In both cases, the math just doesn’t add up.
But as the demographic trends continue to hasten the GOP’s demise (reflected in its plunging partisan identification numbers), does immigration have the potential to briefly forestall the erosion?
In fact, could the issue temporarily create a surge in GOP support?
Yes, according to a new paper by Marisa Abrajano of the left-leaning Brookings Institution.
According to Abrajano, immigration could conceivably solidify white support behind the GOP to such an extent that “Republicans” enjoy some short-term political benefit.
“If immigration leads to a backlash that not only shapes views on immigration but also alters the basic political orientation of large number of Americans, then the entire direction of American politics hangs in the balance,” she writes. “A broad backlash could lead to increasingly strict and conservative policymaking, shift the balance of power between Democrats and Republicans, and advantage rightward leaning candidates throughout the country.”
Whoa … you’ve heard of “wave” elections? That’s a “wave issue.”
Does this mean an end to the GOP’s ticking demographic time bomb? Not really … but it does mean a delay
“Democrats may be loathe to admit it, but it appears as though the GOP’s demographic challenge – often referred to as a ticking time bomb – has a long fuse,” the experts at Market Research Foundation conclude.
Our hope? That Democrats and “Republicans” both continue giving ground to a rising tide of independent thinkers – people who preach freedom and free markets for all Americans regardless of their race.
29 comments
“IF immigration leads to a backlash…”
We have already seen the backlash. It was called the Tea Party movement.
The TeaNazis were rejected in the 2012 Presidential Election.
What an idiot. Since muslim Obama was anointed Dictator of America the Republican Party has DOMINATED the electoral process. See facts:
1.Gained control of House of Representaives
2.Gained 2 seats in Senate
3.Republicans have 30 (TWO-THIRDS FOR ERVIN/SHEHEEN VOTERS) governorships ,MOST EVER.
4.Republicans control BOTH the House and Senate in a majority of states for the first time since the Civil War and Reconstruction.
Also factor in the more ‘local’ political races are (city/county council , school boards , dog catcher ect…) local , conservative are elected as voters don’t want liberals injecting their perverted values into their communities.
What an idiot. Since muslim Obama was anointed Dictator of America the Republican Party has DOMINATED the electoral process. See facts:
1.Gained control of House of Representaives
2.Gained 2 seats in Senate
3.Republicans have 30 (TWO-THIRDS FOR ERVIN/SHEHEEN VOTERS) governorships ,MOST EVER.
4.Republicans control BOTH the House and Senate in a majority of states for the first time since the Civil War and Reconstruction.
Also factor in the more ‘local’ political races are (city/county council , school boards , dog catcher ect…) local , conservative are elected as voters don’t want liberals injecting their perverted values into their communities.
Please don’t forget our appointment today at 1700 hrs.
100 Lime Road; Moore,SC
What did your “proxy” tell you?
Told me he tried to ‘serve’ you and nobody answered the door. Will keep you informed.
Do your imaginary friends get to play with GrandTango’s imaginary friends?
Yep.Kinda like your ‘imaginary’ full-time job that allows you to post comments 24/7 on FITS.
To: “Smirks” and all othe posters/visitors to this blog:
Be informed that “Sandi Morals” was a NO SHOW today 5 August 2014 at 1700 hrs. even though he/she challenged me to meet him/her “any time/any place”
I provided a valid meeting place (100 Lime Road, Moore,SC) for today 5 August 2014 at 1700 hrs. This location was confirmed by several posters on FITS
Simply put:
i was at that location from 1700 – 1800 hrs. today and the POS NEVER showed up. I even provided my physical description and I knew everyone at that location and was NEVER approached by this POS
It should be recorded that anything “Sandi Morals” posts should be considered NULL & VOID and no reply should be provided to this NOSHOW POS who is a dishonorable individual and does not merit any validity whatsoever.
Thus transcribed:
Sparklecity
My ‘proxy’ showed. The other ‘posters’ from FITS noted your mental condition and possible PTSD on the forum and I was advised NOT to have contact with you.
Thank you for the Tom Ervin Bobblehead figurine with the logo ‘Three Parties and I am OUT’. My ‘proxy’ said you were a gentleman , offered him a Colt 45 and use of your EBT Card for an ‘8 piece’ of chicken at Food Lion.
May God Bless you and I hope the money my ‘proxy’ gave you will help you eat and sleep comfortably tonight.
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Your continuing obsession that “free markets”(whatever that even means) will just solve well,EVERYTHING is quaint and amusing.
It’s a religious conviction.
Come, let us make our pilgrimage to the Promised Land of Ancapistan.
The solution to the problem of illegal immigration is very simple and very cheap.
Congress should institute a bill mandating prison time without parole for the employers of illegal workers. That would virtually end the problem of illegal immigration. That would also put at least 8 million American workers back on jobs and paying taxes instead of needing to collect unemployment and welfare.
Actually, it would be a lot better than just cheap. America would come out hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars ahead. Just think, 8 million families off of welfare and back to paying taxes like they used to do when America was enforcing it’s laws. That would go a long way toward paying off the deficit.
The Democrat Party and muslim Obama making Israel the enemy and siding with the terrorists in the Middle East will have a significant effect on races in 2014 and 2016.
The Jewish vote is 5% of the electorate and voted 80% for Obama. Won’t happen this time as Jews don’t trust the Democrat Party anymore. The ‘shift’ by Jews to the Republican Party will be the difference in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and FLORIDA.
Oye vey – the Jewish voters will stay with the Dems because Jewish people are generally more liberal. Period. Immigration will have an impact on the 15 to 20 districts where GOP reps will have to run against the perception that the GOP hates Latinos – and that worries the GOP. Hence the 20 guys screaming at Boehner last Thursday on the House floor. And those same 20 guys, when it came time to vote for reversing DACA – didn’t vote and split for their districts to try and make up with angry Latino voters. Bottom line – as each year goes buy, Latinos will increase their percentage of the overall voters – and until the GOP get’s this elephant out of the way – they will be penalized by it. Period.
No ‘period’ about it. I spend much time in WPB and I see a shift in the perception by Jews of the Democratic Party.
Republicans will pick-up 12-15 House seats in 2014. Period.
Only voters that ANGRY are the majority of LEGAL Americans that are going to punish Democrats in 2014 for their lawlessness.
You make your statement about Jewish voters based on West Palm Beach? My, you forget NYC, North Miami Beach. At best pick up three seats – more like lose 8, and that doesn’t include what’s taking place in Florida where they have to redraw districts to increase Puerto Rican (legal American voters) representation in three or four districts around Orlando. Kagan is still leading in the polls, Pryor is even with Cotton – the key seats to take in the Senate don’t seem to be shifting. And for Governors – Scott’s down five points, Haley is losing, Deal in GA is in the margin of error. Boy – you must live in Greenville – in the Tea Party bubble.
New internet poll has Scott up 5-points on Crist | Political …
http://www.politicalfixflorida.com/…/new-internet-poll-has-scott-up-5-points-on-...
Jul 27, 2014 … Matt Dixon, (@Mdixon55). A new New York Times/CBS/YouGov poll (cross tabs below) has Gov. Rick Scott leading Democrat Charlie Crist by a …
PolitiFact Florida: Gov. Scott and cutting the cost of …
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/…florida…scott…of…/2186491
3 days ago … Scott picks up 42% of the vote to Crist’s 41% in a new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters. Eight percent …
As unpopular as Scott is ,he is ahead in Florida and pulling away.Charlie Crist is even more disgusting to voters. NYT/CBS has Hagan down in NC and she will get swamped in November.Her attacks on Christians and support of gay marriage doomed her campaign. Haley is up double digits and Pryor will lose in Arkansas.Nunn can’t win in GA and Mary L. is finished in Louisiana.
This is indeed a ‘wave’ election. No predictor of 2016 however Dems are going to get wiped out in 2014 mid-terms. Just a fact.
Hey Rocky show me you are fuckin dumber than self-identified/annoited FITS pollster ‘vicupstate’ and predict like he did that Kansas will elect a dem senator in mid-terms! :-)
And in that same time Quinnipiac and another poll have Crist up by 5 to 6.
RealClearPolitics average still has Scott down.
And hey, let’s not for get Painsylvania.
I helped construct part of the fence along the Arizona/Mexico border in 2009.
Pulled a few weeks of active duty working out of the Naco Arizona Border patrol station.
The photo shows sunlight through the gap at the bottom of the fence.
Do a lot of people crawl under the fence?
Not the section I helped build.
It was anchored in a 6 foot deep trench and filled with concrete.
The fence itself extended at least 2 feet below the concrete and was at least 12 feet tall from ground level.
No Hispanics should be allowed in South Carolina. South of the Border is a liberal slum on the border. No Hispanics should be welcome in the up state. They should all be deported, and if they are here legally, their Green Cards should be revoked. If they are citizens their citizenship should be revoked. If they have kids who were born in the United States, they should have their citizenship revoked and be immediately deported. We should stop deporting them back to their homes, we should dump them on the beach of their home country using the US Navy and let them walk home.
Then who the hell is going to pick my goddamn Mt. Olive Pickles?
Sandi?
Nothing is broken with immigration, except Obama and his cronies.
Try reading immigration laws. All that is needed is for those in government to obey, follow, and enforce. If that happens, nothing is broken.
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Be advised that if you reply to any postings from “Sandi Morals”, you will be replying to a coward and a liar.