BREAKING DOWN THE ESTABLISHMENT’S VICTORY IN MISSISSIPPI
By Robert Romano || It is often said that politics makes for strange bedfellows. But it can also make for messy divorces.
Case in point, the closely contested Mississippi Senate Republican primary, where 36-year incumbent Thad Cochran narrowly defeated conservative challenger Chris McDaniel.
Doing some quick back of the envelope math, of the 30 Mississippi counties won by Barack Obama in 2012, Thad Cochran won 25 of them by 21,731 votes in the primary. On June 3, Cochran had won 26 of those same counties by 11,163 votes.
Meanwhile, in Republican counties won by Romney in 2012, McDaniel was the clear favorite. On June 3, he won those counties by 12,549 votes. And on June 24, he won them by 15,038.
So, to win, Cochran boosted his lead by 10,568 in Democrat counties, compared to McDaniel who increased his lead by 2,489 votes in Republican counties.
Turnout tells the tale entirely.
In Democrat counties, turnout disproportionately increased by 21,439 additional voters to 81,464, a 35.7 percent increase. That compares with a 41,401 additional voters in Republican counties to 294,859, just a 16.3 percent increase from June 3.
That clearly made all the difference in the outcome of the race, which Cochran won by just 6,693 votes.
In the first round of voting on June 3, Cochran was behind by 1,386. The extra 11,000 votes in Obama counties got Cochran across the finish line.
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Robert Romano is the Senior Editor of Americans for Limited Government.
8 comments
It’s an open primary. The Tea Party candidate had the same option of reaching out to people who don’t typically vote in the Republican primary and he didn’t (surprise!). Cochran found a majority fair and square.
AND, McDaniel had been a state legislator.
Why didn’t he do something to change from an open primary when he had a chance?
In all fairness it his hard for a neo-confederate to reach out to black folks. So I guess it was not fair for Cochran to exploit that weakness. Here is the only math the Republican party is trying to do these days.
Blacks + Hispanics + Gay People + Working Women + Single Mothers + working poor + college students = WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION!!
McDaniel is claiming that thousands of voters voted in the Democratic primary three weeks ago and then voted in the GOP runoff. That is illegal. There was no statewide Democratic primary but no doubt there were scores of local races for Dems to vote in.
If McDaniel can prove that the number of voters voting illegally exceeded his loss margin, he might have a genuine legal challenge.
Oh the irony on the 50th Anniversary of the Freedom Summer that voters of color turn out to vote for a Republican candidate in Mississippi who is not a neo-confederate. McDaniel got what he deserved now he is crying foul. Sore loser.
I expect that there will be some cussin’ and fussin’ behind closed doors for the next few months. If we are lucky we’ll hear about some fist fights, and possibly even some debates about legalizing DUELING! (Junior is fer’ it)>
McDaniel’s zealous band of Tea Partier’s turned out in maximum numbers on June 3. He had no reserve to draw on and his band of Republicanism had no message to draw a more thoughtful group of Miss. voters, whether Pub or Dem in the run-off.
The simple fact is: Tea Party candidates draw maximum voter attention and maximum turnout of like minded Republicans. They are passionate if not organized. They simply don’t constitute a majority of Republican/Swing Voter/ Leaning Republican voters. Not enough voters are “mad as hell and not gonna take it anymore,” and don’t wear tri-fold hats.
Hell, it’s Math, not rocket science.
How’s that voting ID law working Tea Party?