AND ONE STRATEGIST KNOWS EXACTLY HOW THEY WILL IMPLEMENT IT …
Writing for his new Market Research Foundation organization, veteran electoral strategist Bill Wilson penned a column last week warning against “Republican” overconfidence heading into the 2014 midterm elections.
Wilson’s piece – “Don’t Believe The Spin: 2014 Elections Are Far From Settled” – drew extensively from his entity’s research in the 2013 Virginia governor’s race, which should have been a “Republican” romp. Why wasn’t it? According to Wilson’s analysis, Democrats turned out their core voters (especially blacks) using an aggressive, well-funded ground game – while simultaneously suppressing GOP turnout via a nasty air war.
Meanwhile the GOP made numerous mistakes – including failing to seize upon local issues that offered its candidates opportunities to pick up ideological allies among independent voters. GOP strategists also fell for planted stories about depressed black turnout – which rendered their polling inaccurate and led to the misappropriation of scarce campaign resources.
The result? A 56,000-vote loss for their candidate, Ken Cuccinelli.
A few days after Wilson’s piece made the rounds Sasha Issenberg – author of critically acclaimed election science book The Victory Lab – published an article in New Republic entitled “How The Democrats Can Avoid Going Down This November.” Her piece – which explores “the new science of Democratic survival” – affirms everything Wilson wrote.
Specifically, Issenberg reveals the Democratic strategy to court “Unreliables” – i.e. voters who cast ballots in presidential elections but take a pass on the midterms.
“The strategists engineering the party’s campaigns now have at their disposal databases containing the names of every Unreliable voter in the country, as well as guidance on where, how, and when they can be reached,” she writes. “Democratic analysts have developed predictive models to anticipate which voters are most likely to actually open and read their mail.”
Sheesh … that sounds almost NSA-ish.
In Virginia, Market Research Foundation reports reveal the extent to which Democrats were able to turn out votes in black strongholds – ultimately boosting 2013 African-American participation to 2012 levels (an astounding accomplishment).
“These same tactics – mass African-American mobilization combined with suppression of the GOP vote via negative attacks – will be employed in 2014 on a much broader scale,” Wilson notes in a follow-up post. “And possibly with similar perception-defying results.”
In other words not only does the GOP have to deal with ongoing defections in its own ranks, it must also gird itself for a credible Democratic challenge in 2014.
Wilson is right. “Don’t believe the spin.”
48 comments
And that was African-American voters. In this cycle look for a huge push in Florida, Texas, Illinios, California and Colorado to get out hispanic voters. A couple of seats here, a couple of seats there and pretty soon you’re talking real money.
All the Democrats have to do is sit back and let the Republican nutters keep talking. Everyday the media reports on another Republican saying something completely stupid about minorities, women, health care, immigrants, “liberals”, etc. They will just compile these ridiculous remarks into commercials, using the Republicans own words against them. That stupidity might play with some Southern voters, but the rest of the country recognize these goobers for the fools they really are.
Right, because Democrats never say stupid things. Both sides are brimming over with idiots.
I’m not a big fan of Democrats, but the Republicans let it be known that they don’t care about minorities, women, immigrants, working class Americans, homosexuals…that’s a HUGE chunk of voters right there. Rich white people and poor white “Christians” may keep the Republican’s pockets lined and bring in votes in local elections, but they are a quickly dwindling segment of the population. If the Republicans would disavow the openly bigoted nuts and their moral based policies and run an all inclusive platform based on their economic policy, they’d be doing a lot better. We both know that won’t happen, though.
Meanwhile in South Carolina, the Democrats run Vincent Sheheen who is beholden to the old time white elite of the old SC Democratic Party, they run Molly Spearman as a Republican and they continue to believe renting the black vote on election day with Lillian McBride counting the votes will pull them through. Sigh.
U a lost?
Again: There was a THIRD PARTY Liberal-tarian in VA.
THAT is the Democrat (and FITS’) Strategy. Why do you think they are now slobbering all over Democrat Tom Ervin, as if he is the second coming of Obama???…
Not to mention: Va. is the MOST Gravy-Train Riding state in the Union.
It’s good to be scared of losing to Ds, because America simply cannot take anymore of the Disaster the Ds have implemented…but we should win BIG, if the FITS-Establishment GOP does not collapse on immigration, and hand it to the Ds…
Donald Sterling is a registered republican.
That’s a lie. Who did he give his money to???…That answers your question…
Over the weekend, while nation-wide attention was focused on the racist comments reportedly made by Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling, some conservative commentators were focused on something else: Sterling’s party affiliation.
Specifically, certain conservatives were taking the media to task for supposedly ignoring Sterling’s ties to the Democratic Party. But a bit of context was missing. Sterling is a registered Republican.
A search of The Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder’s website using Sterling’s name, date of birth, and address turns up a Republican registration, and the registrar-recorder’s office confirmed the information to TPM on Monday. (The initial tip came to TPM from public records compiler eMerges.)
(Search result on Monday for Donald Sterling’s voter registration.)
Conservatives — including Matt Drudge, The National Review, and The Daily Caller — have taken time since the Sterling story broke to describe him as a Democrat or point to Sterling’s past contributions to Democratic politicians.
Sterling has given money to Democrats, though his most recent donations appear to have taken place more than a decade ago. According to the Center For Responsive Politics, those donations include $2,000 to then-Sen. Bill Bradley (D-NJ) in 1989, $1,000 to future California Gov. Gray Davis (D) in 1991, and $1,000 to Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) in 1991. Records kept by the National Institute on Money in State Politics also indicate that Sterling gave another $5,000 to Davis in 2002.
By Monday afternoon, The National Review had updated its piece on Sterling’s political ties. The correction read as follows:
“An earlier version of this post identified Sterling as a Democrat. Although his political donations appear to have been exclusively to Democrats, his official party affiliation is not known. A Clippers representative did not respond to requests for his present political affiliation.”
Bahahaha! Grand Tango, you’re a damn Idiot!
Hey idiot.The NAACP LA Chapter still wants to honor this dude and said yesterday they forgive him.He has given millions to this group of racist democrats.He is a Democrat with his heart and wallet.y
Democrats are desperate. If this guy backfires o them…they have NOTHING….
Again: What did he DO????…not what you claim…This is just you trying to cover in desperation…
Like Obama…you Dumb@$$#$ S#!* all over yourselves, based on what your gods TELL you…and you Run Like H#!! from what YOU ARE…when it manifests.
Well, don’t you look extra stupid today. Quite a feat for you, GT
…and all before noon. Maybe his blood sugar is low? Eat something sweet, Tango…
I guess you can’t read very well:
“Sterling has given money to Democrats, though his most recent donations appear to have taken place more than a decade ago. According to the Center For Responsive Politics, those donations include $2,000 to then-Sen. Bill Bradley (D-NJ) in 1989, $1,000 to future California Gov. Gray Davis (D) in 1991, and $1,000 to Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) in 1991. Records kept by the National Institute on Money in State Politics also indicate that Sterling gave another $5,000 to Davis in 2002.”
Thank you, ALL DEMOCRATS….And wasn’t the NAACP awarding him…????…Hahahahaha…He is yours, although I knew that w/o any data. He represents the view of most white democrats..on the street level….
Last donation 2002…now a REGISTERED REPUBLICAN! Wow, what a backpedel there, Tango…
The racist,Democrat Party NAACP does NOT give awards to white people, much less old, white repub men.
This guy is a Hollywood elitist and dem party operative.He just got mad about Magic messin with his girlfriend and may have been afraid of her getting AIDS?
She is going to prison.What she did is illegal in California (both parties have to consent).He bought the team for 15 million and will sell it for 500 million and why NAACP and other race hustlers have not turned on him-yet.
Exactly right. But we’re dealing w/ delusional liberals…who NEVER admit who, and what, they are…
Sandy – you are about as pitiful a human being as I have ever come across . . .
Tom Ervin is apparently a republican however is trying to elect a democrat.
Well, bless his heart. Haley can take a long hike in the Congaree.
As a Dem. I plan to vote for Loftis…so, what’s your point?
I haven’t met a racist in 10 years that wasn’t a Republican.
You have only Imaginary Friends, so I’m not surprised.
Give it up GT. He is a Republican, just like Cliven Bundy and Jerry Sandusky.
i believe that if you check, you will see that he is a registered Republican.
Sterling isn’t a pol, but these asshats are:Well, Republican Primary Season is upon us once again and nothing gets the truth out of GOP candidates quite like the mad dash to the right that they all do in order to please the base. Some candidates know exactly what their kind wants to hear and it leads some of them to drop the dog whistles and come straight out with it. Today we get to hear from Texas Republican Senate Candidate Chris Mapp who participated in a series of interviews with the Dallas Morning News as they decide who gets their endorsement in the primary against sitting Senator John Cornyn.
Texas Republican Senate Candidate Chris Mapp
Getting the endorsement of the Dallas Morning News Editorial Board is a definite leg up in a primary that is filled with Tea Party candidates. Chris Mapp has decided that getting to the right of Cornyn is his best shot and he let it all hang out in his interview. Here is how the Dallas Morning News article puts it:
South Texas businessman Chris Mapp, 53, told this editorial board that ranchers should be allowed to shoot on sight anyone illegally crossing the border on to their land, referred to such people as “wetbacks,” and called the president a “socialist son of a bitch.”
“Continuing that effort, Oklahoma Republican House Majority Leader Dennis Johnson used his time during a floor debate to discuss effective strategies for small business owners.
“There’s such a thing called niche marketing,” he began. “You find out what you do better than somebody else and that’s what you market.”
I’m with ya, Dennis. Niche Marketing. I got it.
“Then you get the reward of success. People come back to you,” he continued. “They like the service they get, and they don’t ask me—they might try to Jew me down on a price, that’s fine. You know what? That’s free market as well.”
Facepalm.
The “new” GOP wants to reach out to people of all colors but they simply can’t stop their true inner feelings from surfacing.”
Heck, he is right.
WOW!
What a revelation, turning out the vote, is the key to winning an election.
Republicans suck at community organization. They need to be out giving away Walmart gift cards or some such.
Lol…excellent point…ain’t gonna matter…Obamacare has destroyed the democrat party for an entire generation…99.9% of Americans do not see the racist, sexist world that the lunatic socialists on this blog rant about…80% of all Americans have seen their insurance premium go up 60-100% in some states, cancelled policies or can’t see their doctor.
Just that simple.Dems can’t pass out enough cigs or phones or ebt cards to save their ass this time.
Distributing alcohol to students at particular colleges seems to work in favor of certain mayoral races, could that possibly be enough?
Don’t think so.That draft beer the college kids drink today is so watered down it works like pot and just makes em hungry with no initiative to think. We are safe.
You might want to step outside of that Right wing echo chamber (Limbaugh, Hannity, Drudge, etc.) and see the real world for once.
While the party in the White House almost always loses seats in the midterm, there isn’t going to be a GOP ‘wave’ election this year. The House will shift 5-10 seats to one side or the other. The GOP has already gerrymandered itself in the majority there, and there just aren’t many swing seats left.
The Senate could go either way, but the best the GOP can expect at this point is a 1-2 seat majority under the BEST scenario. In two years the number of GOP seats will greatly outnumber the Dem ones [the reverse of this year].
Likewise, most of the Governorships up are already in GOP hands, and quite a few are vulnerable to defeat (OH, FL, MI, PA, ME and even KS). Holding SC isn’t a sure bet either, despite what some on here think.
Hilarious.Not one of those governorships will go dem! Put away those talking points the muslim pResident and his team of socialists email you everyday and THINK before I label you Deo the Dummy 2!
Hey Sandy – WorldNetDaily much?? LOL
My thoughts exactly.
You have truly lost your mind.
Obviously, you worship Obama and Al Sharpton.
You can’t be serious.
Jay you seem nice, the forest is there.
A lot of Bad Government that the democrats are responsible for. I just don’t think there is that much magic in the wand.
If they can overcome the disaster of Obama….this country is F*#ked…
More Bad news For democrats…
Most Americans disappointed in Obama’s presidency (CBS)
Amid continued pessimism about the economy and direction of the
country, 59 percent of Americans say they are disappointed in Mr.
Obama’s presidency (including 37 percent who are very disappointed);
40 percent are satisfied. This discontent comes from
Republicans, independents, and Democrats.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/most-americans-disappointed-in-obamas-presidency-poll-says/
The Tea party split did us all a favor, thank god.
So to sum it up,the Democrats won in Va. because they got the most votes.This article was so illuminating.Sure am glad we have Wilson’s little group to tell us .