Mitt Romney carried the South Carolina first congressional district by nearly 20 points last November … meaning it should be completely out of reach for a Democratic candidate this spring, right?
Right?
Wrong. According to a new survey of first district voters conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP), Democrat Elizabeth Colbert-Busch is well-positioned to pull an upset win against either former S.C. Gov. Mark Sanford or former Charleston County councilman Curtis Bostic.
Against Sanford, Colbert-Busch enjoys a narrow 47-45 percent edge. Against Bostic, it’s a 43-43 percent tie.
“The South Carolina special looks like a toss up,” PPP president Dean Debnam said. “The big question is how much Republicans will unify around their nominee after the runoff next week.”
These results are surprising … and bode well for Colbert-Busch. Given the extensive personal and political baggage both of her prospective rivals will carry into the May special election, her advisors have to be feeling very good about their current positioning.
Meanwhile the SCGOP is likely shitting bricks right about now …
Sanford and Bostic face off on April 2 in a GOP runoff election for the right to run against Colbert-Busch – a six-figure taxpayer-funded bureaucrat and sister of faux-conservative comedian Stephen Colbert. PPP found Sanford leading Bostic by a thirteen-point margin heading into the final week of that race – 53-40 percent. That’s a good number for Sanford, who received 37 percent of the vote in last week’s GOP primary race.
Of course the ex-governor – who plunged the state into months of soap opera scandal in 2009 – has a 58 percent unfavorable rating in the district, according to the poll. That’s a devastatingly high number. Meanwhile Bostic is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of respondents – also a dangerously high mark.
PPP is a Democratic-leaning firm, but its numbers have been pretty solid in recent Palmetto State races. The firm surveyed 1,175 likely voters in the district from March 22-24. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent. For GOP results, 648 likely Republican voters were surveyed – with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.
In addition to polling the first district on these upcoming races, the PPP survey also tested several other questions … including job approval ratings for S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley and U.S. President Barack Obama. We’ll have more info on those questions in a follow-up report …
PPP SC FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL (.pdf)
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104 comments
At least she has a job. Ole Sanford’s experiment with the private sector had him running back to politics.
At least she has a job. Ole Sanford’s experiment with the private sector had him running back to politics.
Catholic “social justice” vs. lecherous duty shirker that used tax money to score strange.
Great choices.
Catholic “social justice” vs. lecherous duty shirker that used tax money to score strange.
Great choices.
The polling says that now, but when Sanford creams Bostic, I fully expect all of the losers in the primary to back him. That’s going to have a small effect at least.
Meh. I still hope Sanford loses.
The polling says that now, but when Sanford creams Bostic, I fully expect all of the losers in the primary to back him. That’s going to have a small effect at least.
Meh. I still hope Sanford loses.
The one who has the most approval (55%) is Jenny Sanford. She should be the one running.
Where did you get these numbers Jenny?
MyD–Huh? I’m not Jenny. The numbers came from PPP.
The one who has the most approval (55%) is Jenny Sanford. She should be the one running.
Where did you get these numbers Jenny?
MyD–Huh? I’m not Jenny. The numbers came from PPP.
Not surprising at all,what took so long to publish a story?
The PPP advertisement for ECB is comical. You are telling me 55,000 people voted Republican and 15,000 people voted Democrat just last week (with Sanford himself receiving several thousand more votes than ECB) and now she is running ahead of Sanford? Comical. The votes ain’t there for her.
E.C.B. had no opponent of substance. Was even one article written on that race?
P.P.P. was the most accurate pollster of 2008 and 2012.
Not surprising at all,what took so long to publish a story?
The PPP advertisement for ECB is comical. You are telling me 55,000 people voted Republican and 15,000 people voted Democrat just last week (with Sanford himself receiving several thousand more votes than ECB) and now she is running ahead of Sanford? Comical. The votes ain’t there for her.
E.C.B. had no opponent of substance. Was even one article written on that race?
P.P.P. was the most accurate pollster of 2008 and 2012.
What is the difference ?
If I had to take a stab, one is a cockroach, the other is running to become one?
You are insulting us and if you don’t leave us out of this
WE – WILL – RETALIATE!
One on the LEFT is a radical pro- abortion, pro- gay marriage rubber stamp for Obama. Voting for ECB is a vote for Obama and his anti constitutional agenda of ending Second Amendment rights,legalizing gay marriage and Obamacare.
and a vote for Sanfraud is?
>anti constitutional agenda
>ending Second Amendment rights
Hmm… Even if you disagree with the assault weapons ban and high capacity magazine restrictions (and I do), it is hard to argue they are unconstitutional. I’d rather not start a long-winded discussion on that, but suffice to say the previous law was never struck down.
>legalizing gay marriage
I missed the part of the Constitution that restricts marriages to certain terms. The founders must have put it near the part of the Constitution that banned slavery or the part that declared Christianity as the official religion of the USA.
>Obamacare
Nope, that’s constitutional. :)
Gay marriage is coming wether you like it or not. Obamacare is here to stay. And ending Second Amendment rights can’t happen without a Constitutional Amendment.
So don’t worry; you’ll still be able to shoot an abortion provider and claim it was in defense of the unborn.
What is the difference ?
If I had to take a stab, one is a cockroach, the other is running to become one?
You are insulting us and if you don’t leave us out of this
WE – WILL – RETALIATE!
One on the LEFT is a radical pro- abortion, pro- gay marriage rubber stamp for Obama. Voting for ECB is a vote for Obama and his anti constitutional agenda of ending Second Amendment rights,legalizing gay marriage and Obamacare.
and a vote for Sanfraud is?
>anti constitutional agenda
>ending Second Amendment rights
Hmm… Even if you disagree with the assault weapons ban and high capacity magazine restrictions (and I do), it is hard to argue they are unconstitutional. I’d rather not start a long-winded discussion on that, but suffice to say the previous law was never struck down.
>legalizing gay marriage
I missed the part of the Constitution that restricts marriages to certain terms. The founders must have put it near the part of the Constitution that banned slavery or the part that declared Christianity as the official religion of the USA.
>Obamacare
Nope, that’s constitutional. :)
Gay marriage is coming wether you like it or not. Obamacare is here to stay. And ending Second Amendment rights can’t happen without a Constitutional Amendment.
So don’t worry; you’ll still be able to shoot an abortion provider and claim it was in defense of the unborn.
The people leaning towards Sanford will skew the results for Bostic and vice versa. Bostic beats Sanford in the “unfavorable” ratings by 16 points yet Sanford beats Bostic by 13 points among voters. Check if PPP does the poll again next Wednesday and whichever candidate (likely Sanford by a wide margin) wins the runoff will lead Busch by 5 to 10 points. When push comes to shove I don’t see Busch being within 10 points of the Republican on election day.
You are absolutely correct. No doubt the Colbert-Bush campaign was in shock and saw the reality of their eventual defeat on the night of the primary when almost 80% of the ballots cast were in the Republican Primary and Sanford himself defeated ECB by several thousand votes.She stands ZERO chance in SC1.
When one candidate is tainted, normal voting patterns go out the window.
That is how a Republicans won seats in New Orleans and Hawaii, that were overwhelming Democratic, in special elections.
The people leaning towards Sanford will skew the results for Bostic and vice versa. Bostic beats Sanford in the “unfavorable” ratings by 16 points yet Sanford beats Bostic by 13 points among voters. Check if PPP does the poll again next Wednesday and whichever candidate (likely Sanford by a wide margin) wins the runoff will lead Busch by 5 to 10 points. When push comes to shove I don’t see Busch being within 10 points of the Republican on election day.
You are absolutely correct. No doubt the Colbert-Bush campaign was in shock and saw the reality of their eventual defeat on the night of the primary when almost 80% of the ballots cast were in the Republican Primary and Sanford himself defeated ECB by several thousand votes.She stands ZERO chance in SC1.
When one candidate is tainted, normal voting patterns go out the window.
That is how a Republicans won seats in New Orleans and Hawaii, that were overwhelming Democratic, in special elections.
PPP’s poll should have asked potential voters if they were going to vote for Colbert-Busch or against Sanfraud.
PPP’s poll should have asked potential voters if they were going to vote for Colbert-Busch or against Sanfraud.
haha! looks like the kooky, party of stupid gop thing is starting to trickle down to the local level.
haha! looks like the kooky, party of stupid gop thing is starting to trickle down to the local level.
You are insulting us and if you don’t leave us out of this
WE – WILL – RETALIATE!
You are insulting us and if you don’t leave us out of this
WE – WILL – RETALIATE!
I’d really rather have her than Sanford. Though I doubt she has much of a chance. She is honest about who she is, even if she is WRONG.
The others (in the GOP) will out-vote her. She’ll be powerless. Sanford is a fake and a liar…who gets everyone (colleagues) turned against him…so he is worthless-useless as a leader.
Sanford is running for his own ego alone..and nothing more. And Sanford is an embarrassment who damages the Conservative movement within the GOP…
All I can say is “damn, just damn”. Thought I would never agree with the big idio”T”.
I’d really rather have her than Sanford. Though I doubt she has much of a chance. She is honest about who she is, even if she is WRONG.
The others (in the GOP) will out-vote her. She’ll be powerless. Sanford is a fake and a liar…who gets everyone (colleagues) turned against him…so he is worthless-useless as a leader.
Sanford is running for his own ego alone..and nothing more. And Sanford is an embarrassment who damages the Conservative movement within the GOP…
All I can say is “damn, just damn”. Thought I would never agree with the big idio”T”.
Colbert Busch will take it easily……Sanford and Bostic are both jokes,Republicans shot themselves in the foot AGAIN.Poll showed that Jenny was the most popular political figure in SC.Jenny Sanford could have beaten Colbert Busch…….If it’s between Sanford and Colbert Busch,I’m betting Jenny votes for CB……The gaul of Sanford to ask his ex to help make a better life for the new Mrs Mark Sanford would have been the nail in the voting booth.
“gaul”
Sanfraud is French?
oui………French” fried”.
There was a story on the web, some one “let slip” that Jenny and Colbert Busch run in the same circles and they know and like each other. Supposedly it was offhandedly discussed that Jenny could do the endorsement thing but she declined for what ever reasons but it was surmised that it was out of respect for her kids since she was a mother first. Colbert Busch was in agreement and the idea was discarded but not before she released a statement to that effect. Mission accomplished?
Jenny may stay quiet till after 4/2 election. If Bostic wins she may endorse ECB, if it is the other candidate she’ll keep quiet for the children’s sakes.
Jenny won’t endorse anyone because of her boys and that’s understandable,but at the same time Jenny is a woman who was totally betrayed by her husband and there is no way she will ever vote for him.For those who say CB can’t win,remember what upset women did in the 2012 elections.A woman will step over Republicans and Democrats rather than be stepped on.
“Jenny and Colbert Busch run in the same circles and they know and like each other”
I’ll try not to hold that against Colbert Busch . . .
Colbert Busch will take it easily……Sanford and Bostic are both jokes,Republicans shot themselves in the foot AGAIN.Poll showed that Jenny was the most popular political figure in SC.Jenny Sanford could have beaten Colbert Busch…….If it’s between Sanford and Colbert Busch,I’m betting Jenny votes for CB……The gaul of Sanford to ask his ex to help make a better life for the new Mrs Mark Sanford would have been the nail in the voting booth.
“gaul”
Sanfraud is French?
oui………French” fried”.
There was a story on the web, some one “let slip” that Jenny and Colbert Busch run in the same circles and they know and like each other. Supposedly it was offhandedly discussed that Jenny could do the endorsement thing but she declined for what ever reasons but it was surmised that it was out of respect for her kids since she was a mother first. Colbert Busch was in agreement and the idea was discarded but not before she released a statement to that effect. Mission accomplished?
Jenny may stay quiet till after 4/2 election. If Bostic wins she may endorse ECB, if it is the other candidate she’ll keep quiet for the children’s sakes.
Jenny won’t endorse anyone because of her boys and that’s understandable,but at the same time Jenny is a woman who was totally betrayed by her husband and there is no way she will ever vote for him.For those who say CB can’t win,remember what upset women did in the 2012 elections.A woman will step over Republicans and Democrats rather than be stepped on.
“Jenny and Colbert Busch run in the same circles and they know and like each other”
I’ll try not to hold that against Colbert Busch . . .
I see you finally learned that Stephen Colbert is not actually a conservative. Some of your fellow bloggers still lag behind.
I see you finally learned that Stephen Colbert is not actually a conservative. Some of your fellow bloggers still lag behind.
Even if Sanford gets remarried voters have to worry about his wandering penis — that’s where his brain is located — and I don’t trust it to make good decisions. Colbert-Busch isn’t attractive and won’t be thinking about men all the time. If I had to hire one of then to keep their mind on business, it’d be Colbert-Busch. Zebras don’t change their stripes, even after asking for forgiveness.
Even if Sanford gets remarried voters have to worry about his wandering penis — that’s where his brain is located — and I don’t trust it to make good decisions. Colbert-Busch isn’t attractive and won’t be thinking about men all the time. If I had to hire one of then to keep their mind on business, it’d be Colbert-Busch. Zebras don’t change their stripes, even after asking for forgiveness.
Colbert works and lives in the upstate. She rents a home in SC-1. Bostic will not file his financial disclosure form until after the election. His campaign opted for a 60 day extension citing complexities. A look at what Dick sees in Colbert is that Linda Ketner garnered 48% against Brown in 2008. 2008 is not 2013, 2014, or 2016. Sanford won Ravenals seat with 66%, the second closest margin a Democrat came within for the seat in the last 21 years. Sanford then won with 96% and 91% in 1996 and 1998 respectively.
Recap: Colbert lives and works in the upstate, rents a home in SC-1.
This is a special election runoff between Sanford and Bostic April 2.
Bostic will not file a financial disclosure, Sanford and Colbert did.
53793 votes were cast on March 19 by Republicans.
163,000 were cast for Ketner with Obama on the ticket in 2008.
Scott received 152,000 against Frasiers 67,000 votes cast in 2010.
Scott received 180,000 in 2012
103,000 were cast for Rose in 2012 with Obama on the ticket.
There is no way Colbert will get 100,000 votes May 3 or even 67,000. She must beat the 53,000 votes cast in the run off…in the month of May?…never happen. It really shows how ignorant Democrats on this blog are pushing to have these poll results reported as if the poll has any historical relevance. They see the world through their warped perceptions, cold hard facts need not apply.
How’s that Obama care working for you Democrats? Just another glaring example of thinking in platitudes, seeing with warped perceptions, and following blindly what your national socialist leadership puts out.
“How’s that Obama care working for you Democrats?”
Well I am an independent, but i would say a hell of a lot better than the Republican alternative.
Nice try. She lives in Mount Pleasant, and has for over 20 years. True, she does work for Clemson, but at its wind power project in the Lowcountry. You can learn a lot with the Google: http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20100206/ARCHIVES/302069959
Forget it, Republicans will not be dictated to by fact checkers!!!!!
Facts confuse them and you know what a confused Republican is….Karl Rove.
This is true, though: “There is no way Colbert will get 100,000 votes May 3 or even 67,000”
Mostly because the election is on May 7th.
Your recap is useless information. Sanford was unopposed for all intents and purposes, in every election you mentioned. He was also not exposed then, for the douche bag we all now know he is. Special elections always have much lower turnout than regular elections, it all comes down to who is motivated to vote and is there sufficient campaign infrastructure to turn them out. ECB should have plenty of support to turn out her voters. Who the hell is going to be motivated to vote for Sanfraud?
PPP has a shitload better record of predicting elections than Karl Rove and Dick Morris. But please, keep on living in your alternative universe.
So Bostic doesn’t live in SC-1, ECB only rents in SC-1, and Sanford has an ex-wife and maybe 1 or 2 kids left in SC-1, interests in Argentina, and a fiancee that hates SC. Sounds like they are evenly matched.
Colbert works and lives in the upstate. She rents a home in SC-1. Bostic will not file his financial disclosure form until after the election. His campaign opted for a 60 day extension citing complexities. A look at what Dick sees in Colbert is that Linda Ketner garnered 48% against Brown in 2008. 2008 is not 2013, 2014, or 2016. Sanford won Ravenals seat with 66%, the second closest margin a Democrat came within for the seat in the last 21 years. Sanford then won with 96% and 91% in 1996 and 1998 respectively.
Recap: Colbert lives and works in the upstate, rents a home in SC-1.
This is a special election runoff between Sanford and Bostic April 2.
Bostic will not file a financial disclosure, Sanford and Colbert did.
53793 votes were cast on March 19 by Republicans.
163,000 were cast for Ketner with Obama on the ticket in 2008.
Scott received 152,000 against Frasiers 67,000 votes cast in 2010.
Scott received 180,000 in 2012
103,000 were cast for Rose in 2012 with Obama on the ticket.
There is no way Colbert will get 100,000 votes May 3 or even 67,000. She must beat the 53,000 votes cast in the run off…in the month of May?…never happen. It really shows how ignorant Democrats on this blog are pushing to have these poll results reported as if the poll has any historical relevance. They see the world through their warped perceptions, cold hard facts need not apply.
How’s that Obama care working for you Democrats? Just another glaring example of thinking in platitudes, seeing with warped perceptions, and following blindly what your national socialist leadership puts out.
“How’s that Obama care working for you Democrats?”
Well I am an independent, but i would say a hell of a lot better than the Republican alternative.
Nice try. She lives in Mount Pleasant, and has for over 20 years. True, she does work for Clemson, but at its wind power project in the Lowcountry. You can learn a lot with the Google: http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20100206/ARCHIVES/302069959
Forget it, Republicans will not be dictated to by fact checkers!!!!!
Facts confuse them and you know what a confused Republican is….Karl Rove.
This is true, though: “There is no way Colbert will get 100,000 votes May 3 or even 67,000”
Mostly because the election is on May 7th.
Your recap is useless information. Sanford was unopposed for all intents and purposes, in every election you mentioned. He was also not exposed then, for the douche bag we all now know he is. Special elections always have much lower turnout than regular elections, it all comes down to who is motivated to vote and is there sufficient campaign infrastructure to turn them out. ECB should have plenty of support to turn out her voters. Who the hell is going to be motivated to vote for Sanfraud?
PPP has a shitload better record of predicting elections than Karl Rove and Dick Morris. But please, keep on living in your alternative universe.
So Bostic doesn’t live in SC-1, ECB only rents in SC-1, and Sanford has an ex-wife and maybe 1 or 2 kids left in SC-1, interests in Argentina, and a fiancee that hates SC. Sounds like they are evenly matched.
Looks like it’s going to be Ol’Horseface Colbert-Bush versus Ol’Horseface Sanford. Ought to be a lot of fun handicapping this one, not that both horsefaces don’t come with built in handicaps of their own…
Please, all of this praise is embarrassing!
Are you sure that you can’t see the difference?
Looks like it’s going to be Ol’Horseface Colbert-Bush versus Ol’Horseface Sanford. Ought to be a lot of fun handicapping this one, not that both horsefaces don’t come with built in handicaps of their own…
Please, all of this praise is embarrassing!
Are you sure that you can’t see the difference?
She’s real, and she’s spectacular!
She’s real, and she’s spectacular!
It’s going to be great watching Sanford on stage with ECB what with him trying to answer questions and taint tuck his hardon at the same time. Sanford would fuck a pile of rocks if he thought there was a snake in it.
It’s going to be great watching Sanford on stage with ECB what with him trying to answer questions and taint tuck his hardon at the same time. Sanford would fuck a pile of rocks if he thought there was a snake in it.
Y’all seem to forget that 85% of the registered voters stayed home on 3/19. So if it is Sanford vs. Colbert Busch, I expect you’ll see a far more motivated crowd seeking to keep that lying sack of poop out of DC. I see Colbert Busch winning on 5/7, and by a decent margin.
She has my vote. I will be refreshing for a female to represent SC in Washington. Many of those dames add balance to what is otherwise a wild and crazy frat party where absolutely nothing gets done. I long for the days of Tip O’Neal and Robert Dole.
Totally agree,she has my vote…..only choice.
Thomas that was frankly STUPID if it is true. ‘far more motivated crowd’?
Go to the ECB Facebook and see em beggin for money. Not that it would have made ANY difference, they should have got their vote out in the primary to give supporters a reason to write a check. When you only get 20% of the vote in a primary, hard to believe anybody will give you a dime.
Y’all seem to forget that 85% of the registered voters stayed home on 3/19. So if it is Sanford vs. Colbert Busch, I expect you’ll see a far more motivated crowd seeking to keep that lying sack of poop out of DC. I see Colbert Busch winning on 5/7, and by a decent margin.
She has my vote. I will be refreshing for a female to represent SC in Washington. Many of those dames add balance to what is otherwise a wild and crazy frat party where absolutely nothing gets done. I long for the days of Tip O’Neal and Robert Dole.
Totally agree,she has my vote…..only choice.
Thomas that was frankly STUPID if it is true. ‘far more motivated crowd’?
Go to the ECB Facebook and see em beggin for money. Not that it would have made ANY difference, they should have got their vote out in the primary to give supporters a reason to write a check. When you only get 20% of the vote in a primary, hard to believe anybody will give you a dime.
Yikes! 1/3 of my face is in this pix with Elizabeth. It was not my goal to show up on Fits News!
Yikes! 1/3 of my face is in this pix with Elizabeth. It was not my goal to show up on Fits News!
Republicans have finally put up candidates who are so outrageous that even SC voters are tending to vote against them. Are we finally waking up?
Republicans have finally put up candidates who are so outrageous that even SC voters are tending to vote against them. Are we finally waking up?